It’s odd how differently the same news story is reported, based on the news outlet that produced it. That’s especially true with stories about the economy and it’s always been that way. But lately, the disparity has become quite stark. For example, check out the difference in these two takes on the economy published the same day a week ago. After a batch of economic data was released and the stock market dropped a few hundred points, the Associated Press had this to say: WASHINGTON (AP) — Last week's harrowing plunge in U.S. stocks — fueled by economic fears about China and plummeting oil prices — left investors anxious and alarmed. Some wondered if it signaled an approaching recession in the United States. The answer, most analysts say, is no. The American economy is expected to prove resilient and nimble enough to avoid serious damage, at least anytime soon. For all the economy's challenges, the job market is strong, home sales are solid and cheaper gasoline has allowed consumers to spend more on cars, restaurants and online shopping. Now, here’s what was reported in the Wall Street Journal: The U.S. economy entered 2016 with little momentum from some of its key drivers, with consumers dialing back spending and factories weighed down by tepid global demand. Economists on Friday lowered their expectations for growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 and first quarter of this year amid a slew of disappointing U.S. economic data for December. Though weakness in the manufacturing sector has been evident for months, a slowdown in consumer momentum could raise doubts about the ability of households to buttress the U.S. economy from weakness in the rest of the world. “It’s a big yellow caution flag,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist for MFR Inc. It’s a classic case of glass half full, glass half empty because these guys are looking at the same data. I suppose the truth lies somewhere in the middle of those two assessments – not as rosy as AP makes things appear and not as dire as WSJ makes it sound. But there are some things about the economy that I find a little unsettling, aside from the fact that the stock market is so jittery. Frankly, usually investors get jittery for a reason. Sure, the oil market and China’s economy woes are weighing on investors. But right here in the U.S., industries slowed production for the third straight month in December and businesses restocked their shelves more slowly as well. There’s this certain economic indicator I like to look at called the Purchasing Managers’ Index. It’s an indicator of the health of the economy based on the manufacturing sector. The PMI comprises five data points: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. A PMI of more than 50 means the manufacturing sector expanded compared to the previous month. An index of 50 means no change. Below 50 means a contraction. The December PMI fell to 48.2. That was down from 48.6 in November. In June, the PMI was at 53.5 and it’s been on a decline ever since. The Institute of Supply Management tracks the PMI and lots of other manufacturing statistics. Take a look at the graphics on this page to see the manufacturing trends we’ve got going on in this economy. The good news is that the overall economy (Gross Domestic Product) is still growing, albeit at a weak rate of around 2 percent or so. And there was other good year-end news in 2015. Payrolls increased when employers added 292,000 new jobs, even though the number of people in the labor force shrank yet again. The labor department revised the October and November numbers upward and wages increased 2.5 percent from a year ago. Even so, it just feels like the economy is tepid. Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t feel like the majority of businesses are going great guns right now. One thing I find odd is that retail sales fell in December. More people are working and making more money and there has been a significant decrease in gas prices. With gasoline so cheap these days, one would expect consumers to divert some of that money to consumer goods. One might have expected sales to rise in December. For the whole year, retail sales were up only 2.1 percent in 2015. That compares to an almost 4 percent gain in 2014. That made 2015 the weakest year for sales growth since 2009, at the start of the recession. Even though people have more money to spend, they’re not spending it. This is bothersome because the Federal Reserve, the Obama administration and a whole bunch of economists are banking on solid consumer spending to keep the U.S. economy rolling amid some pretty stiff global headwinds. I hope AP’s assessment is correct. I want the economy to be “resilient and nimble” going forward. I guess I’m just a little skeptical.
