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El Ni-o brought Indiana a mild and dry winter last year. His sister, La Ni-a, may not be as calm.
Dave Tucek, National Weather Service warning coordination meteorologist, Indianapolis, said that La Ni-a is characterized by oceanic temperatures in the east equatorial Pacific Ocean regions being opposite that of the El Ni-o, or colder than average. La Ni-a will be more variable in its strength and position.
Tucek said that the December to February forecast calls for an average precipitation above normal. Whether that precipitation comes in the form of rain or snow depends on where the pressure systems originate.
If the system tracks northeast up the Ohio River Valley and is far enough south, the precipitation hitting Kosciusko County will be in the form of snow, Tucek said. If the surface winds flow south or southeast and track over or north of Kosciusko County, the precipitation will be in the form of rain.
"The precipitation depends on how each and every storm tracks over the winter season," Tucek said.
Northern Indiana meteorologist John Taylor said, "Every storm system is different."
What La Ni-a will bring with her is a little uncertain, but the National Weather Service will conduct a winter weather awareness campaign during the week of Nov. 16 to Nov. 20. Their goal is to help fellow Hoosiers understand winter weather hazards. They also hope to help people be better prepared if severe winter weather occurs.
Winter storms often bring Indiana a variety of weather including heavy snow, heavy rain, freezing rain, high winds and the occasional severe thunderstorm or tornado. Often, winter storms are followed by clear but very cold weather.
During the winter season, about 70 percent of deaths occur in autos due to ice and snow. About 25 percent of winter deaths are people who are caught in storms. Most winter deaths due to ice and snow are males over 40, the NWS said.
"I don't know the exact details of why that is," Tucek said. "I think maybe we are just hard-headed."
Winter deaths due to exposure to cold occur about 20 percent in the home. The NWS said that the 75 percent of winter deaths due to exposure are males and 50 percent are people over 60 years old.
"Their bodies just don't adapt that well to the cold," Tucek said.
The NWS said people should have certain devices with them during the winter to be better prepared for harsh conditions.
At home or work, a flashlight and extra batteries should be kept along with a battery-powered NOAA weather radio. Also, extra water and food that doesn't require cooking, and emergency heating like a fireplace or stove that doesn't require electricity, should be kept. A person should always check for adequate ventilation.
Cars and trucks should be winterized now. A survival kit should include blankets, extra clothes, a flashlight with extra batteries, a first-aid kit, a knife, high calorie non-perishable food, a shovel, booster cables and an ice scraper.
The gas tank should be kept near full to aid traction. A person should avoid traveling alone. They need to always let others know their primary and alternate travel routes and should check the most recent weather report to avoid getting stranded by a storm.
Taylor said, "Every winter you get bad road conditions from time to time. Last winter, the conditions were pretty modest and the road conditions weren't bad. This winter, with the precipitation being higher than average, the road conditions could be said to be worse than normal."
Taylor said the average snowfall for Kosciusko County is about 40 inches. South Bend gets about 70 inches and Fort Wayne has about 35 inches.
Tucek said, "One thing that we can be concerned about is that they're forecasting a colder than usual winter."
