Earlier this year, a fierce battle between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum had many political pundits believing the Republican nomination for president could reach the party’s convention.
Now with Santorum out of the race and Newt Gingrich recently announcing he would suspend his campaign, Indiana’s May 8 primary has lost a presidential primary to help an otherwise expected low turnout.
The only other candidate on the May 8 ballot is Texas congressman Ron Paul who is currently running but has only carried about 10 percent of the vote.
Elizabeth Bennion, a political science professor at Indiana University-South Bend, said in an interview Thursday afternoon a lack of a contested presidential primary could hurt senate candidate Richard Mourdock.
Mourdock, the state’s treasurer, is facing off with long-time incumbent Richard Lugar in a hotly contested Republican primary race.
The winner will take on current 2nd district congressman Joe Donnelly in the general election.
“I think the concern for the Mourdock campaign is that the voters that would be more likely to associate themselves with a Gingrich or Santorum won’t come out now,” said Bennion.
Monica Boyer, co-founder of the TEA party group Kosciusko Silent No More, takes a different view.
“I think low turnout is going to benefit Richard Mourdock,” said Boyer. “Establishment people would vote for Romney. People have more of an attitude of going to vote somebody out rather than somebody in.”
Boyer said groups like hers have been mobilized to unseat Lugar for some time.
“Our eyes and our focus are on the senate race,” said Boyer.
Bennion said Mourdock’s campaign will have trouble in the fall if it does beat Lugar in the primary.
“With Donnelly being an Indiana Democrat, a moderate, pro-life, pro-gun candidate, he’s going to be able to draw from the middle,” said Bennion. “And general elections are won by pulling in people in the middle.”
Conversely, Bennion said Donnelly’s campaign would rather face Mourdock because Lugar has historically been able to draw from centrist voters.
“The turnout is always the highest for the presidential election,” said Bennion. “It’s lower for state and lower still for local elections.”
“Our primary in Indiana happens so late,” said Bennion. “The primary in 2008 was a rare thing.”
In 2008, now President Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton contested Indiana. That increased voter turnout helped turn out for local races that would otherwise have low turnout.
While there are several contested county races, Bennion said unless an incumbent has angered the community there isn’t a groundswell for local races.
In the United States Representative District 2 race, Bennion said she’d be extremely shocked if Republican Jackie Walorski and Democrat Brendan Mullen didn’t face off in November.
“And at that point, it’s Walorski’s race to lose,” said Bennion.
But those sort of races won’t necessarily help local races.
Bennion said political scientists would love to know why people are less likely to vote in local elections even though local politics affects them more and their vote is worth more than in a presidential election.
“Americans don’t tend to know much about local politics and what they do,” said Bennion.
“We have a culture that celebrates celebrity,” said Bennion. “The national folks become celebrities in a way. They show up in celebrity magazines. Their fashion becomes a topic of conversation. People attach emotions to these people.”
The local elections in Kosciusko County will most likely again see voter turnout of around 20 percent.
For Boyer’s group, she said that they do have local candidates they support. Most are for precinct committee posts.
One race Boyer said she wished she had more of a grasp on was the 54th Circuit Court Judge’s race between Stephen Harris and Michael Reed.
“It’s been a point of frustration with us of not knowing where to stand,” said Boyer.
Boyer also took issue with the perceived notion that the TEA party will have less of an effect in 2012 than 2010.
Bennion said that the TEA party has become absorbed into the Republican Party, though to the right wing of it.
Boyer said the notion of a less-effective TEA party is media driven.
“To the media side, we’ve gone from standing on the courthouse lawn, holding signs,” said Boyer. “Then we went to another phase of advocation. Now we’ve went into the behind-scenes things that the media doesn’t often see. We’re running for office, supporting candidates and working behind the scenes. We’ll still have an impact.”
Follow staff writer Daniel Riordan on Twitter at @TUNews_Riordan
