I’ve written before about the reasons for the rise of Donald Trump. People are more than a little bit angry and feel like the country is going down hill. Polls bear that out. The latest poll from Rasmussen, for the week ending May 5, showed just 27 percent of likely voters think the country is headed in the right direction. A whopping 67 percent think it’s on the wrong track. Anecdotally, there are lots of other things that bear out the displeasure of the masses as the potential for bad things to happen has turned into big business. I remember when I was a kid in the ’60s people had bunkers on their property. There were fallout shelters all over the place and we actually had nuclear attack drills in school where teachers herded us into places with the yellow nuclear shelter placards hanging above the door. But these days, it’s more of a “prepper” thing. People aren’t so much worried about communists and nuclear bombs. They’re worried about economic collapse, widespread terror attacks or political unrest. Sales of prepper stuff is booming, according to an article on realtor.com People are hoarding food, guns, ammo, batteries and all manner of other items they would need in the event of a total societal breakdown. Some of the more affluent preppers have even hired specialized contactors to construct safe rooms or underground living quarters equipped with everything they need to survive for a couple of years. Here’s an excerpt from a realtor.com story: Business is also good over at Ultimate Bunker, based on the outskirts of Salt Lake City, where sales have nearly tripled each year since the company opened shop four years ago. General contractor Mike Peters got into bunkers (literally, folks!) after watching the TV show “Doomsday Preppers” on the National Geographic Channel. He was convinced he could build them better. His underground shelters start at $59,000 and go way up from there. His top-of-the-line model has areas for raising rabbits and fish. The majority of his sales are in the $500,000 range. “Almost everything I do is off-ground and located in the middle of nowhere,” says Peters, who often powers the shelters with solar panels placed on nearby sheds. Customers “want a bunker right now because they feel the country is doomed after the election,” he says. “It doesn’t matter who wins; we’re in trouble.” Interesting. Another clear indicator of people’s concern is the rise of patriot groups. Theguardian.com did an interesting piece last week on the rise of these groups, interviewing organizers from across the country. The writer summarized it like this: Like Trump, the Patriot Movement’s surge is due in part to fear, pain and the perceived indifference of both economic winners and political leaders to the fate of communities that have never recovered from the 2008 crash. In places that need radical solutions, the only radical proposals they are hearing come from the right. Adding later: ... until significant efforts are made to repair the wreckage in rural America, the patriot movement will continue to find an audience. I get that. Don’t misunderstand. I don’t agree with it. But I get it. I understand how these people feel and why they feel that way. They truly feel that their country is being taken away from them by the people who turn the levers of power. So they want somebody else turning the levers. What amazes me is how so many in the establishment don’t get it. Seriously, how disconnected from the masses are these people? I see the hand-wringing by opinion columnists and politicians. They worry about the Republican Party being fractured or being harmed in some irreparable way by Trump. They say Trump needs people like Lindsay Graham on his side or that his campaign is doomed if he can’t get Paul Ryan to endorse him. They say if all these establishment folks and the GOP as a whole doesn’t coalesce around Trump, the presidency, the House and the Senate all will be lost in November. Sorry, I just don’t see it. Trump is a bigger electoral phenomenon than Barack Obama was in 2008. Record numbers of people – many of whom had never bothered to vote before – headed to GOP primary polls. Trump ran a campaign with barely any donors or Political Action Committee support. He amassed more votes than any GOP primary candidate in the history of GOP primary candidates. He did this amid a slate of 16 other candidates, many of whom were firmly rooted in the establishment – governors, U.S. senators, former presidential candidates, et. al. These establishment candidates spent literally hundreds of millions of donor dollars in an attempt to swat Trump down. How did that work out for them? But now, somehow, Trump needs the establishment? I don’t think so. Yet I see this from some beltway columnist every day. Trump is finished unless he conforms to the role prescribed by the establishment. The GOP will be ruined unless Trump can mold himself into someone that Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney can endorse. That line of thinking completely ignores the political reality of the last 10 months. If anything, the converse is true. Trump is winning because he continues to poke the establishment in the eye. The establishment says while that may have worked in the primary, Trump will lose to Hillary Clinton in a landslide in November. Really? A Qunnipiac poll that came out this week was telling. A little over a thousand registered voters in each state – over landlines and cell phones – were polled in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida from April 27 to May 8. The result? Dead heat between Trump and Clinton. (A month ago, it was Hillary by 10.) From Quinnipiac: In Florida, Clinton leads Trump, 43 percent to 42 percent. While Clinton holds a 13-point advantage among Florida women – 48 percent to 35 percent – Trump’s lead among men is equally large, at 49 percent to 36 percent. Independent Florida voters are split, 39 percent to 39 percent, while along racial lines, white voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate 52 percent to 33 percent. Among nonwhite voters, 63 percent to 20 percent said they would vote for the Democrat. Clinton’s favorability in Florida is a net negative 20 points (37 percent to 57 percent), though Trump earned the same numbers. The results were similar in the other states, with Trump holding a 43 to 41 margin over Clinton in Ohio. In Pennsylvania, the spread was Clinton, 43; Trump, 42. When it comes to being honest and trustworthy, neither Trump nor Clinton performed well, but Trump outperformed the Clinton by 9, 8 and 9 points in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, respectively. Both did better on the issue of being a strong leader, but Trump outperformed Clinton in all three states. Net positive poll percentages follow: Florida: Clinton, 8; Trump 23 Ohio: Clinton, 10: Trump 25 Pennsylvania: Clinton, 18; Trump 25 Both are flawed candidates to be sure, but there are some significant differences. Trump is new to the game. Hillary is old hat. Trump owns the issues people care about – jobs, immigration (the wall), economy and trade, terrorism. All Hillary has left to talk about is free stuff, raising the minimum wage and equal pay for women. She will attack him for a lack of character, experience and policy details. He will attack her for dishonesty, scandals and ties to Obama’s policies. Trump may lose, of course. But if he does, it won’t be for lack of an endorsement from Paul Ryan.
