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Over the last week, I've watched four basketball games, two of which were upsets, one in which two even teams played, and another in which the heavy favorite won easily.
In boys action, I saw winless Valley upset Whitko, and I saw Warsaw knock off Fort Wayne North on the road.
In girls action, two teams that I considered fairly even, Triton and Valley, hooked up, and the Trojans came out on top in a close game. Finally, Wawasee couldn't pull off the upset at home against No. 1 (3A) NorthWood.
So what did the Valley boys, Warsaw boys and Triton girls do to pull off the wins, and what couldn't Wawasee do?
The first thing I noticed was rebounding. In the boys games, Valley outrebounded Whitko by 10 and Warsaw outrebounded North by 17. Both teams made a concerted effort to keep the favorites from getting more than one shot every trip. However, the Triton girls were outrebounded by one and Wawasee outrebounded NorthWood by three. So that makes me think that although rebounding is a large positive, it is not essential to pulling off the upset.
Another myth would have to do with turnovers. Coaches say every game that turnovers are one of the most important considerations, but are they really?
Warsaw committed 25 turnovers in the win over North and forced only 11, but still won the game. The Triton girls gave the ball to Valley 28 times and the Valley boys threw the ball away 18 times while taking it away only 15 times. Those numbers would tell me that turnovers may be one of the most overrated stats.
So maybe field goal percentage is important. Coaches often talk about getting "high percentage shots" and taking care of the opportunities they are given.
In the Valley boys win, the Vikings and Whitko were fairly even. Whitko shot 46 percent while Valley shot 44 percent. North shot 49 percent in the loss to Warsaw, while the Tigers shot a sterling 52 percent. In the girls games, the numbers say much more.
Triton shot 44 percent, while holding Valley to just 33 percent shooting. In keeping Wawasee from pulling off the upset, NorthWood shot 49 percent to just 25 percent for the Warriors.
So I'd have to say that shooting the ball well is a priority, yet not as big as one might think.
However, there is one stat that speaks loudly.
In college basketball, it can often be the great equalizer in those first-round games in the NCAA tournament. Major underdogs that can nail the three-pointer are the ones that pull the upsets. No difference in high school basketball.
Warsaw knocked down more than 50 percent of its shots from behind the arc, making six of 11. North missed nine consecutive three-pointers before hitting the last two of the game in the final 10 seconds. By then it was too late.
Although the Valley boys didn't shoot them quite as well Warsaw, the Vikings did make 37.5 percent from behind the arc, while Whitko made a measily 1 of 5.
In the Triton-Valley girls game, Triton took only four three-pointers, but nailed two of them. Valley made six of 12, but those are what actually kept the Vikings in the game. If not for Brandi Fisher's four three-pointers, Valley may have lost by more than 10.
Finally, NorthWood knocked down 3 of 5 three-pointers while Wawasee made just 2 of 9 in losing.
So while field goal percentage and rebounding may be important, my conclusion is that three-point shooting may be the most important number in pulling off an upset or in winning a game in which teams are considered even.
As one person told me, "You'll have kids in the first grade forgetting about lay-ups and shooting three-pointers." Maybe so, maybe not. But if so, maybe their teams will be better off for it.
