The numbers are in, and redistricting and decisions about whether or not to close schools are now in the hands of the Warsaw School Board.
A report on the latest demographic study by Gann-McKibben Demographic Consulting was given at Monday's school board meeting. Jerome N. McKibben, Ph.D., recommended three options: closing four elementary schools and building two new schools; closing three schools, building a new school and expanding one school; or closing two schools, building no new schools and keeping the remaining elementaries within the 90 percent capacity range.
The study was a look at demographic projections for the next 10 years. Based on several factors - the number of new houses being built in a specific area, the number of existing houses being sold in that area and 2000 Census data on ages and specific populations in certain areas - McKibben's general conclusion was that student populations at most elementary schools will rise gradually until approximately the 2008-09 school year, and then gradually decline.
He analyzed every elementary school district, and said Lincoln Elementary is the most representative of Warsaw schools.
"Lincoln is your bellwether," he said, citing the number of "starter" homes, and therefore younger families, in the district. "If you want to look at what's happening in the district, look at Lincoln."
He said the ideal size for an elementary school is 300 to 600 students.
"It's not economically feasible to run an elementary school of less than 300 kids," he said.
His top recommendation was to close four elementaries - Jefferson, Atwood, Claypool and Silver Lake - and build a new elementary in Claypool, "the geographic center of the southern part of the district."
Because a Claypool school would include approximately 450 students, he recommended building a new elementary there or enlarging the current Claypool building.
Along with the Claypool school, he recommended building a new school in Prairie Township, not in Atwood, closer to the eastern line of the township.
If Jefferson was closed, he said, students who fall in that district would be distributed between Eisenhower, Claypool and Washington, with some current Eisenhower students going to Harrison, Claypool or Washington.
McKibben also said the high school would start reaching capacity around 2010 or 2011, at which time it would include approximately 2,000 students. The capacity problem would probably be temporary, he said, with the number of students gradually decreasing.
Board members did not comment on the study except to thank McKibben. They took no action on the study. Rande Thorpe, WCS business manager, said McKibben was paid approximately $13,000 to do the demographic study.
In other business, the board:
Unanimously approved a "net lease" between the school corporation and the building corporation for the planned building projects, which include a football stadium and auditorium at Warsaw Community High School and a new school in the northwest portion of the district.
Approved a bid of $329,276 by Easterday Construction, Culver, for renovations to Lakeview Middle School, mostly in the former Ivy Tech portion of the building. The work, including a bus lane area, preschool playground and alternative education program classrooms, is expected to be done by August.
Approved a bid of $32,500 by Commercial Audio Systems, Chesterton, for a replacement fire alarm system at Edgewood Middle School.
Approved borrowing an additional $4.5 million from the Indiana Bond Bank to carry the school corporation through this school year. The state has not yet approved any school corporations' budgets for 2003, said Thorpe, "we kind of have to have the additional funds - either that or school will come to a standstill."
The $4.5 million is in addition to $9 million already borrowed, for a total of $13.5 million.
School board members are Craig Allebach, Larry Chamberlain, Gene England, Cathy Folk, James Folk, Mark Minatel and Ron Yeiter. The board meets at 7 p.m. on the third Monday of each month in the administration building.