Continuously serving Kosciusko County since 1854
Two demographic studies in the past five years show an expected long-term decline in the number of elementary students expected to attend Warsaw Community Schools.
The most recent study, which was compiled by Gann-McKibben Demographic Consulting of Ellettsville, Ind., and Gardner, Mass., and reported to the Warsaw School Board April 21, projected a slight increase in the number of elementary students in the Warsaw school district, and then a steady decline.
Taking into consideration such factors as the number of new houses being built in a specific area, the number of existing houses being sold in that area and 2000 Census data on ages and specific populations in certain areas, the report predicted a steady increase in the number of all elementary students until the peak in the 2007-08 school year.
The 2003 report, which cost WCS $13,000, projected populations at all elementary school districts to either decline or increase only slightly by 2010. The largest expected increase, 8.9 percent, was for Harrison Elementary's district. Populations in the Atwood, Claypool, Eisenhower and Silver Lake districts were predicted to decline, while the Madison district was expected to increase in population by 7.5 percent, followed by Leesburg at 6.9 percent and the Lincoln district at 3.4 percent. Of the schools in areas where population is expected to increase, Jefferson and Washington elementary districts were predicted to grow the least - 2.1 percent for Jefferson and 2.0 percent for Washington.
The demographic study also predicted that between 2002 and 2012, the school to grow the most would be Leesburg Elementary. Claypool was projected to lose the most students (see chart).
In a demographic study by the same company in October 1998, the trends were the same but the years were earlier.
For example, the 1998 report projected the number of Warsaw elementary students to reach a high point in the 2002-03 school year, then gradually decline. The 2003 study moved the highest year to the 2007-08 school year, and then predicted a steady decline.
After the 1998 report was completed and the Community-Based Planning Project turned it its report, then-superintendent Dr. Lee Harman suggested consolidating Silver Lake and Claypool elementaries and building a new school in Prairie Township to replace Atwood and to take some of the burden off Leesburg and Harrison, which, he said, were near capacity.
Also during 1998-99, air conditioning was added to three schools now proposed to be closed - Atwood, Silver Lake and Claypool. According to Rande Thorpe, WCS business manager, the addition of air conditioning cost $30,000 for Atwood, $35,000 for Silver Lake and $300,000 for Claypool.
In December 2000, Craig Allebach, a member of the school board then and now the president, said, "I would be against moving Silver Lake into Claypool. I don't think that's a good deal. I don't see that that's an improvement."
At that time the board also was considering building a football stadium at Warsaw Community High School, an auditorium, relocating soccer and softball fields and building a new weight and wrestling room. Several work session meetings were held in the winter of 2001 to hear public comment on the suggested projects.
A resolution for those improvements, and for a new Prairie Township elementary school, was passed in March 2002. However, that school was not included in the building resolution passed in November 2002. The November resolution also included improvements not previously discussed, such as additional office and administration space in the high school, and renovating and enlarging the WCHS cafeteria.
Some of that work already has begun, and the board gave its permission June 16 for the WCS maintenance director to advertise for bids for a technology addition to the administration building.
When McKibben presented the report on his demographic study to the board April 21, he analyzed each school district:
• Atwood's and Claypool's populations are older and there is not much in-migration to keep up the enrollment level at those schools. He predicted a slow decline in enrollment.
• Eisenhower also is in line for a slow decline of its school enrollment. "The kids that go to school there now aren't going to stick around and produce the next generation," he said, adding that Madison's situation is similar to Eisenhower's.
• The Harrison district's population, McKibben said, has a greater distribution of socio-economic classes, and enrollment would grow until 2009, after which it would remain stable.
• Jefferson's district, he said, is the most complex demographic structure, with an aging population and a large immigration flow. He projected a slight growth in enrollment, then a slight decline after 2008.
• Like Harrison, the Leesburg area was seen to have a lot of sustained growth and a "rather substantial population," McKibben said. He predicted a population increase to 2008, then a stable enrollment.
• Lincoln's enrollment would "just about stay constant," he said, adding that the area includes a large number of starter homes whose families become more affluent and move on to other school districts.
• The problem with Silver Lake Elementary, McKibben said, is that the number of students is so small that even a small decline, which he predicted, has a detrimental effect on enrollment.
• The Washington Elementary district is susceptible to "empty-nesters," older residents with no children. He predicted that the school's enrollment would remain fairly constant until after 2012, when it would have a dramatic dropoff unless the population changes drastically.
McKibben recommended the board close Atwood, Claypool, Jefferson and Silver Lake elementaries and build two new schools - one in Claypool and one in Prairie Township.
One month later, superintendent Dr. Dave McGuire made his own proposal to the board - that they close those four schools and build two: one in Prairie Township and one in Winona Lake near the current Jefferson Elementary.
That proposal stood until a June 9 meeting at Claypool, at which board member Gene England announced McGuire's plan to compromise by building a new Jefferson school and by consolidating Claypool and Silver Lake elementaries in Claypool. The Prairie Township school was again off the drawing table because, board member Larry Chamberlain said at the Claypool meeting, it is difficult to buy land in the area previously discussed for the Prairie Township school (near the intersection of U.S. 30 and Ind. 15) and because it is not known where water and utility lines will go.
The timing for the proposed closings also comes on the heels of improvements that have been made to the small schools, including, this year, a new $50,000 gymnasium floor at Jefferson and $75,000 worth of inside storm windows at Silver Lake.
