All the long-time Chicago Cubs fans I know seem to have the word “collapse” firmly entrenched in the back of their minds. I wonder if that kind of paranoia comes with a soundtrack, and if so is the music from “Jaws” a part of it? To the extent I can relate, I kept waiting for the Royals’ postseason to completely come unraveled last year. Fortunately for my sanity and my hairline, it never really happened, even though I was fully convinced I was witnessing the end of the line in Game 4 of the ALDS at Houston. So, the bad news for the Cubs is even with the 11-8 win over Cincinnati Monday night, Chicago is just 4-6 over its last 10 games. The good news is no one in the division can beat that mark over the last week and a half or so. More good news: Cub fans woke up Tuesday morning knowing their team has a 10-game lead in the National League Central; easily the largest lead in any division in the game. So, what would it take for the North Siders to blow that kind of lead? First off, their starting pitching would have to fail. Over the last 10 games the Cubs have given up four or more runs six times, and a good chunk of those have come off defending Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta, who has proven recently he’s not some sort of pitching cyborg. Secondly, their offensive firepower would have to go into a prolonged, collective slump. I considered that when the weather turns cooler in the fall and the wind starts blowing in at Wrigley, the Cubs might not have the power hitting they’ve become accustomed to. But then again, it wasn’t exactly toasty warm outside when the Cubs built this huge division lead. Lastly, their defense would have to let them down in an epic way. I do think it odd to have brought up Willson Contreras, one of the top catching prospects in the game, and stick him at first base and in left field. Outside of Anthony Rizzo at first and Ben Zobrist at second, and the Miguel Montero/David Ross platoon behind the plate, manager Joe Maddon has moved guys around the diamond like a slow-pitch softball team drawing their positions out of a hat between every inning. I admit, Maddon has probably forgotten more baseball than I’ve ever known, but conventional wisdom would be to have a starting eight play the same positions and hit in the same spot in the order most of the time. I do think as the season wears on, there will be more stability in that department, but it’ll return once the Cubs clinch the division. And yes, I think the Cubs will win the NL Central. Home-field advantage isn’t a foregone conclusion, and that’s where the trouble to this magical season may kick in for the Cub faithful. It might be a good time to know where that panic button is, and keep it handy. While the top seed will get the wild-card game winner, who will likely be among the hottest teams in the league going into October, the second and third seeds will likely play an epic five-game set. I think it would be to Chicago’s advantage to let the Giants and Nationals beat up on each other, and take care of business against whomever they’d get. Which sets up what should be another memorable National League Championship Series. Home field would be a good thing, but I don’t know that it will truly matter; the teams that get that far will be able to win on the road. All-in-all, if the Cubs are going to win a World Series for the first time since fans arrived to the game on horseback, there will be plenty of time to grind teeth smooth and pass out blood pressure meds like they were M&M’s. That time has not yet come. But it’s the Cubs. Honestly, without the all-consuming angst that will come in October, it just wouldn’t be right somehow. So my question is this: would a World Series Game 7 at Wrigley Field be the ultimate people-watching experience? I think so, and I wouldn’t have to be in the ballpark to see such a thing. People will remember where they were and who they were with for such an occasion. So hang on folks. October’s coming, and it’ll be an interesting experience for baseball fans everywhere.
