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We are nearly two full years into the 12-team playoff experiment in college football and there is still one glaring problem facing it.
The committee picking these 12 teams still has no idea what it is doing.
The most recent playoff rankings were released last night and were panned by fans of teams all over the country. Except for Notre Dame fans, but we’ll get to that in due time. There were many different problems with this list of 25 teams, but the main issue boils down to one shocking observation:
In the world of college football, it doesn’t matter who you beat anymore.
If you’re a Power 4 school, you might as well ditch your conference, become an independent and schedule 12 FCS teams every single year. You’ll finish 12-0, the committee most likely won’t watch a snap of your games, and they’ll put you in the playoff regardless.
What the committee basically told us last night is that they care a lot more about who you lose to compared to who you’ve beaten.
Let’s start with the biggest example of this. Notre Dame is 8-2. Miami is 8-2. Notre Dame is No. 9 in the country. Miami is No. 13. Miami’s two losses are to two unranked teams. You could definitely make a case that Louisville deserves a number next to their name, but they don’t have one. Notre Dame’s two losses are to the No. 3 and No. 13 teams in the country. That’s definitely better, but wait a second…
That means they lost to Miami.
Call me old school, but when two teams have the same record and have played each other, I’m going to think that the team that won that game is the better team. Rewarding Notre Dame for having “better losses” at the detriment of a team that actually BEAT THEM? That just doesn’t make sense and it never will.
As of this moment, we can now officially disregard head-to-head as having any say in determining a playoff team. That’s what this committee is telling us.
I get that one game doesn’t tell the whole story. If Notre Dame shook off those two early season losses and bounced back by picking up wins against some of the best teams in the country, I’d understand. But they haven’t, and they’re still being rewarded. The Irish have played three Power 4 teams that have yet to win a conference game this year. They have beaten one team that is currently ranked.
Compare that to Alabama, who in the most recent rankings, was put one spot behind the Irish. The Tide have beaten four ranked teams, one of which currently sits in the top five and the other in the top 15. But according to the committee, that darn loss to Florida State was a really bad one, and it somehow outweighs those wins.
Is this making sense to any of you yet? Me neither.
I don’t want to single out Notre Dame here. Oregon is the No. 7 team in the country and they haven’t beaten a single team that is currently ranked. In fact, the committee spokesperson listed the Ducks’ win over Penn State as an impressive one, even though they aren’t as good as previously expected.
Huh?
So we can go ahead and get rid of a team’s strength of schedule as a playoff metric too, even though all we heard last year was how important that was. Nope, now it's just your strength of losses.
But that’s okay, because if losses are all that matters, all you need to do is win all of your games and everything will sort itself out, right?
Well, about that…
BYU found itself ranked No. 11 this week at 9-1, behind three two loss teams. You’re probably asking who that one loss was to. The Cougars lost on the road to No. 5 Texas Tech a couple of weeks ago. Granted, BYU looked downright terrible in that game, but by the logic the rest of this ranking has shown us, shouldn’t they be above these teams with multiple losses?
Georgia Tech has just the one loss as well, albeit to a much worse North Carolina State team. They’re No. 16, with pretty much no chance of making the playoff unless they either win the conference championship game or get lucky with some chaos above them.
That gives us a trifecta. Add a team’s record to the category of “helps us determine a playoff team… sometimes.”
All I’m looking for is a little consistency. You can’t say that something factors into the rankings one week and then contradict that the next. If all that matters to this committee is who you lose to and when you do it, then just say that. I won’t agree with it, but at least I’ll know what the criteria is.
And that’s another thing. What makes this committee so special that they are the end all be all to determine the fates of thousands of young men? The fact that we allow current college athletic directors on it seems like it could lead to a conflict of interest, especially when one of them is looking for a new football coach at the moment (Hunter Yurachek, Arkansas).
Unfortunately, determining a national championship in college football will never be easy. It never has been. But that doesn’t mean we can’t constantly be improving it. We look back at the BCS now and are thankful we have an actual playoff instead of letting the computers decide. Maybe 20 years from now we’ll look back and think of how stupid it was to let a committee with a ton of personal interests at stake make these choices instead.
Nah, 20 years from now college football will be run by the big brands more than ever and we will be yearning for the days of old. I for one can’t wait for a 24 team playoff consisting only of SEC and Big Ten teams, of which by then there will be 30 each. Oh, and Notre Dame will have to be included too, obviously.
I kid. At the end of the day, this negative discussion surrounding the playoff and the teams vying for spots will be a thing every year. As a writer, I’ll take advantage when I can. It may seem all doom and gloom now, but I have a feeling that if the games we get deliver, everything will be okay.
I might have rambled a bit by the end there, but there’s something about college football that gets the juices flowing. Anyway, I finished at .500 last week to keep a pretty good record as we reach the ⅔ mark of the NFL season. Let’s keep it rolling.
FAVORITE FAVORITE
Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Houston Texans
I had a big problem with picking a favorite this week: there were three teams that I liked, but all were favored by double digits. You all know I don’t roll that way. The Bills offense has been figuring it out in recent weeks and they have the advantage of taking on a Texans team that will be without CJ Stroud once again. These primetime games have had a habit of being pretty stinky, so maybe Buffalo rolls and I get an easy dub. Wishful thinking.
The Pick: Bills -5.5
BIG DAWG GOTTA EAT
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
This was a line that really jumped out at me when I saw it. There are a few factors at play here. First, I think the Packers are easily the most overrated team in football. There have been zero instances this season where I have watched them play and thought this is a team that can contend for a championship. Secondly, these NFC North games are always tough, physical and go down to the wire. Blowouts in this division are few and far between. Lastly, the Vikings looked as bad as a team can look last week and still had enough in the tank to take a lead in the final minute. I like Minnesota to keep this close.
The Pick: Vikings +6.5
BEAR DOWN
Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears (-2.5)
How about those first place Chicago Bears? The Monsters of the Midway dominated the Minnesota Vikings for three quarters before remembering the only way they can win games is by coming from behind. After nearly blowing it, they were able to steal victory from the jaws of defeat after stealing defeat from the jaws of victory. It’s a shame that now that the Bears are finally good, Aaron Rodgers is hurt and his status for this game is up in the air. With that big of an uncertainty, I have to pick the Bears. They keep rolling with a home win.
The Pick: Bears -2.5
THIS IS OUR COLTS
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
I’d probably have this as my game of the week if I didn’t have it here. The Colts will be well rested coming into this game of a bye, while the Chiefs are struggling to stay afloat in the playoff race at 5-5. The line suggests that you should bet on Kansas City beginning to claw back here, but I’m not so sure. For whatever reason, Indy has had plenty of success against the Chiefs since Pat Mahomes started his career, and I think it keeps going here. Keep riding Jonathan Taylor and keep this a ball game.
The Pick: Colts +3.5
GAME OF THE WEEK
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Outside of that Chiefs-Colts game, there really was not that much to pick from this week. Even with the Bucs stacking up the losses, they’re still in first place and this is a battle between two teams at the top of their respective divisions. It’s probably not a good sign that the line of this game of the week is nearly a touchdown, but if that’s all that determined things, then Falcons-Saints would be here. No thanks. I want to pick Baker and the boys so badly, but I just can’t with the way that the Rams are playing and vice versa. I’m thinking Tampa starts stacking the wins as they get healthier, but it’s a tough ask to go on the road to get this win.
The Pick: Rams -6.5
I took some risks this week, but nobody ever got rich playing it safe. Hopefully I can take after my Bears and keep stacking up the wins.
Cheers.
Last Week’s Record: 2-2
Season Record: 31-23
