It appears the magic of last season has worn off completely.
I’m starting to believe I might have been a one-hit wonder. My first season doing this column was atrocious and through five weeks of this year, it’s not looking much better. I’m beginning to question my ball knowledge once more, but we will fight on. One thing about me, I could go 0-16 on any given week and will be back the next Thursday with a smile on my face.
I don’t think it’s all my fault though. Let me explain.
Through five weeks, this is one of the most interesting NFL seasons I can remember. Parity is at an all-time high. There are a lot of teams that are pretty good, but none of them are incredible. Even the undefeated teams look like they have cracks in the armor. On the flip side, sure, some teams are bad, but nobody looks horrible. You could have made a case for the Panthers, but ever since they switched out Bryce Young for Andy Dalton, it hasn’t been too bad.
It’s a far cry from when I was younger, when you had the cream of the crop, three or four teams led by Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks that you knew were going to be there at the end of the season. You also had four or five teams that were going to be lucky to win four games that year, perfect for everybody to beat up on.
That has certainly been shifting over the last few years, but you’re really seeing it this season in full force. Anything can happen on any given Sunday. That’s been a saying for forever, but it’s never rang more true. For example, the 4-1 Washington Commanders are facing off against the 2-3 San Francisco 49ers. Who is favored in that game? Probably whichever team is at home. Even still, would you be super confident in either team in that game?
Is it because quarterback play is not at the level it used to be? Is it because defenses are better than they’ve ever been? Or is it as simple as the talent level across the board being the best it’s ever been, making sure even the worst of teams have guys that can make a difference. It’s probably a combination of all of the above. Is there a reason I might have left off? Feel free to let me know.
This is just a long way of saying it’s completely understandable that I suck at picking games this season. Listen, I have to stay positive somehow. If avoiding all accountability is the only way, then let me!
Anyways, let's move on.
What a weekend for college football right? It always seems to be a weekend where you look at the slate and don’t think much of it that the craziest stuff seems to happen. It worked out nicely for Missouri, as my Tigers were thoroughly embarrassed by Texas A&M early on Saturday, and by 7 p.m., like three crazier things had already happened. I am super excited for the 12-team playoff this year. While it will still probably be won by a team like Texas or Ohio State, every game leading up to it is going to be awesome. Right now, we have no idea who’s even going to be in it!
Similar to the NFL, we’re seeing more and more teams become competitive across the country, and I have to believe that NIL (Name. Image and Likeness) has to be a big factor for this. It used to be that a lot of schools had no chance to acquire top talent, especially when competing with programs like Alabama, Ohio State, etc. Now, we’re seeing top players going to school we never thought they would consider in the past. Sure, the system has its drawbacks, but that’s the price of doing business.
Besides, all of these top-flight programs were illegally paying these players in the first place, now everyone else has a chance to get in on the fun. But that’s a topic for another day.
Quick hitters:
It was Stef’s birthday last weekend so after watching Mizzou get their brains beaten in, we went canoeing. It was a lot of fun. Becoming one with nature reminded me that there is more to life than touchdowns and rankings. Not much more, but more.
October means spooky season, and I’ve gotten back into horror movie mode. Sure I’ve seen these movies multiple times, but it never gets old turning one on late on an October night. While I’ve probably seen it, feel free to send me recommendations.
The MLB Playoffs have been awesome so far. The drama has been intense, the matchups are perfect. This is shaping up to be a memorable October.
We need a good week here. I’m sick of messing up the late afternoon slate and watching it all crumble from there. This needs to be the bounce back week.
Let’s do this.
THURSDAY NIGHT
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks
As I mentioned earlier, the Niners are another one of those teams that I can’t figure out. The Seahawks are the same way for that matter, losing two straight games after a 3-0 start. Each of these teams are capable of looking great, as well as laying an egg. I will die on my sword and pick San Fran once again here. They seem to have Seattle’s number, and are the far more talented team. Will they finally start playing like it? Who knows. I’m just throwing stuff at the wall and hoping it sticks.
The Pick: 49ers (-3.5)
ACROSS THE POND
Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-1.5)
I do not like waking up early. Especially on the weekends. However, I’m going to have to on Sunday because I will never miss a Bears game. I know it was just the Panthers, who have one of the worst defenses in the league, but Caleb Williams looked absolutely awesome last weekend. He continues to improve every single week and I truly feel like we finally have a quarterback in Chicago. I hope he can keep it going here. The Jags won their first game of the season against Indy last week, and are going back to London, which is pretty much home turf at this point. Even with that fact, I have to go with the Bears. The defense is awesome and the offense is coming around. They get it done.
The Pick: Bears -1.5
1 O’CLOCK SUNDAY
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at Tennessee Titans
The Colts need to win this one to get a win back in the AFC South, while the Titans need to start winning games in general to put a decent season together. Joe Flacco looked awesome in Indy’s loss to the Jags, and I think if the team wants to win now, they should be starting him the rest of the way. Tennessee had a bye last week, but the week before, Mason Rudolph replaced Will Levis and got the job done. Two quarterback controversies in one game. How fun. Give me the Colts.
The Pick: Colts -1.5
Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
I never thought this was going to be one of the best matchups of the week, but here we are with Washington at 4-1 and Jayden Daniels taking over the league. The Ravens are figuring it out, having won three straight games. Lamar Jackson looks awesome, single handedly winning last week’s game against the Bengals. While I do believe this could be the game that we finally see Daniels slowed down a little bit, I am tired of picking the favorites with these lopsided spreads and coming up empty. We’re going with the Commies.
The Pick: Commanders +6.5
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)
The Browns stink out loud. They might be the exception to the entire discussion we had earlier. They don’t scare anybody. People are clamoring for Deshaun Watson to be benched, and they’re not wrong to do so. That being said, the Eagles haven’t been great this season ever, but nowhere near the level of bad that Cleveland has been. I don’t think the Browns are good whatsoever, but I also don’t believe Philly is good enough to be that big of favorites over anybody. AJ Brown is coming back, which will help, but not enough to win by nine.
The Pick: Browns +8.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints
This is going to be another tight rivalry game in the NFC South. The Bucs lit up the scoreboard last week but still couldn’t pick up the win as the defense allowed Kirk Cousins to go nuclear. The Saints have come back down to Earth after a hot start, having lost their most recent game to the Chiefs on Monday night. New Orleans is a team I haven’t picked correctly one time the entire season, so I will be nervous to pick their games for the remainder of the campaign. I’m picking against them here, so act accordingly.
The Pick: Buccaneers -2.5
Houston Texans (-7) at New England Patriots
If the Chiefs are the best team in the AFC, which they are, I think the Texans might be the second best. CJ Stroud is awesome, the defense is cooking, and they are starting this season off hot. On the flip side, the Patriots are now looking like the team we thought was going to be the worst in the league. If Houston is serious about contending, this is a game they need to come out and dominate in. I expect to see it from the Texans in this one.
The Pick: Texans -7
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)
The Cardinals picked up a huge win last weekend, going into San Fran and beating the Niners on the road. The Packers were also on the west coast, taking down the Rams in LA. Both games were awfully close, with both of these teams coming out on top. Both offenses have looked fairly solid this season, and while the Arizona defense has been average, they’ve come up with some big stops in some big moments. I don’t know if they will win this game, but the O is good enough to cover this spread. Jordan Love still stinks.
The Pick: Cardinals +5.5
LATE AFTERNOON SLATE
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Denver Broncos
I need to start hitting these late slate games. It has been the Achilles heel of this season so far. It starts here. I’ve been picking against the Broncos pretty much every week this season, and it’s hurt me the last couple. The Chargers have had some injury issues but after a bye, should be feeling a bit better. I do think LA has the better team, but the Broncos at home have been a solid team. They do have Justin Herbert’s number over the past couple of years, but Jim Harbaugh could be a difference maker.
The Pick: Chargers -3
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders
The Steelers have come back down to Earth a bit after the 3-0 start, losing two straight. Justin Fields is slowing down substantially. The Raiders benched Gardner Minshew in a loss to Denver last weekend and now sit in last place in the AFC West. On paper, this seems like a game that is too easy to pick. The Pittsburgh offense is bad, but the Raiders have been worse. The defense is where this game will be won, and I think that does give us the end result.
The Pick: Steelers -3
Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Falcons offense had it cooking last Thursday against the Bucs, with Kirk Cousins setting a team record with over 500 yards passing. The Panthers ran into the buzzsaw that is the Bears’ defense last week, but have been a lot better with Andy Dalton under center. Even with that being said, I think the Atlanta offense going up against that defense is going to do enough to get this job done.
The Pick: Falcons -6.5
Detroit Lions (-3) at Dallas Cowboys
This is definitely the best game of the late slate, and one of the best of the week. The Lions got a break with the bye last week, while the Cowboys battled through the elements to get a win on Sunday night. At the end of the day, Detroit is the better team in this matchup and they seem to be getting better as each week goes along. The Cowboys are still a team that we don’t know which version we’re going to get on any given day. I trust the Lions more.
The Pick: Lions -3
WAITIN’ ALL DAY FOR A SUNDAY NIGHT
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at New York Giants
This is our Sunday night game? Gross. At this point in time, the better team here might actually be the Giants, as the Bengals find ways to lose games in new ways every single week. The Giants have exceeded expectations while Cincy certainly has not. Malik Nabers should be back for the G Men in this one, and that’ll be a big boost. For some reason though, I can’t quit the Bengals. Joe Burrow is still awesome, he just needs his team to back him up. I think they do this week.
The Pick: Bengals -3.5
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New York Jets
The biggest news of the week came out of New York, as the Jets fired head coach Robert Saleh just five games into the season. I definitely did not see him as the first coach being fired this year. I blame Aaron Rodgers. The Bills started the season hot, but have cooled off significantly the last few weeks. Even still, they almost were able to pull off an upset in Houston last weekend if not for some more than questionable clock management at the end of the game. For whatever reason, Josh Allen has struggled against the Jets in his career. New York gets the interim coach bump here and wins.
The Pick: Jets +2.5
On the bye: Chiefs, Dolphins, Rams, Vikings
I promise I will not let these picks ruin my week if it goes wrong once again. But, a broken clock is right twice a day, so maybe I will finally catch a break with this one. We’ll see.
Cheers.
Last Week’s Record: 4-10
Season Record: 25-37