Is it blasphemy in Indiana to be more excited about six sets of high school football final four fields than The NCAA Final Four for men’s and women’s college basketball? If so, I’ll have to watch for airborne stones as I move through the Lake City.
I believe this greater excitement for high school football final four started when I grew up in the Northeastern Ohio when high school football enthusiastically embraced by most of the sports-loving population.
Fast forward to the present Saturday morning.
Indiana’s two largest high school football enrollment classes launched their postseason runs last night, so I’ll take some time to predict my final four among five of the six classes and discuss how Warsaw could advance to semistate.
If Triton can avenge a regular season loss to its newest conference member, North Miami, for the sectional trophy, it has a puncher’s chance at another grudge match, a semistate showdown with North Judson, the regular season Hoosier North Athletic Conference champ.
Madison-Grant (9-1) would likely be the Trojans’ hurdle in regionals, and the Argylls, aside from a regular season finale conference loss to Mississinewa, won seven of its eight regular season games rolling up mercy rule scores.
North Vermillion and Providence are my picks for representing the Southern half of the small school final four.
Since Adams Central and Indianapolis Lutheran, the State’s Class 1A combatants for the previous two state title clashes, now reside in Class 2A due to tournament success factor (TSF) rules, there will be a new Class 1A champ.
Football fans all over the state point to North Judson as the favorite for the state title in Class 1A.
The Bremen Lions are Class 2A’s case of the state tournament’s setup where overall record takes a back seat to teams playing well in the late regular season schedule.
The 6-4 Lions will likely tumble in their sectional title game, though, and the like final four in Class 2A will be Lafayette Central Catholic in a tough battle with Andrean, Adams Central, unfazed by its aforementioned TSF bump-up, Indianapolis Lutheran (also unfazed…), and the winner of last night’s battle of 10-0 squads, Paoli and Brownstown Central.
It’s possible we’ll see an all-private school state final with Lafayette Central Catholic and Indianapolis Lutheran at Lucas Oil Stadium. This seems to go with the territory in at least one of the three smallest enrollment classes in most seasons.
Evansville Memorial, returning to Class 3A after a few seasons in Class 4A from TSF during the late 2010s will be one of the South’s half of the final four. Lawrenceburg will roll into semistate but tumble to Memorial.
The Northern duo will be the Garret Railroaders whose offense already looked like it was in mid-season form in July light scrimmages (sorry Tippecanoe Valley fans).
West Lafayette or Maconaquah will emerge from the other Northern regional. West Lafayette plays a tougher schedule, and each of these teams could convincingly beat the Three Rivers Conference runner-up Northwestern (the Braves already beat them 42-2 in regular season conference action).
Memorial looks like the favorite to hoist another tournament title trophy with Indianapolis Chatard out of the Class 3A pool, now beginning their next back-and-forth journey to Class 4A due to TSF.
New Prairie seems to make their way deep into November each season, but Mishawaka, whose enrollment decrease was further sandwiched by East Central’s bump up into Class 5A and Warsaw’s swap with Fort Wayne Snider on Class 5A, is the likely program to battle the regional winner among sectionals 19 and 20. These two brackets have plenty of horsepower.
East Noble’s only loss was to Class 5A defending champion, Fort Wayne Snider, and although three teams in Sectional 20 survived with at least seven wins coming into last night’s round, the Knights have won convincingly among games they were supposed to win… convincingly.
New Palestine will survive a meatgrinder battle against Chatard, and Evansville Reitz will emerge to comprise the Southern Class 4A semistate showdown, with the winner the most likely to hoist championship hardware on Thanksgiving weekend.
Class 5A, now home to the Warsaw Tigers (Sectional 11) has a weaker Southern field, and the state title trophy has a strong likelihood of staying north of US Route 24 again.
The Tigers will have to avoid their September 20 late game troubles in (a likely) sectional title clash – a rematch with Class 5A number 1 Concord - to see action in a North regional clash with Lafayette Jefferson, another unbeaten side whose likely sectional title foe, McCutcheon, gave them their toughest regular season fight. How much of that tight match was rivalry energy, and how much of it might have been caused by either injuries, or certain athletes “ostensibly healthy but unavailable” as I like to phrase that status.
Merrillville will be the other half of the Northern final four.
(Bwawk-bwawk) I am not predicting the Class 5A final four aside from Merrillville, and although the South has added East Central to its already deep field, a handful of Northern 5A teams are playing well enough to be state champs.
The state’s largest enrollment tranche, Class 6A, has some twists in its possible final four.
Center Grove is not a shoo-in for a spot in the big-school class’s final four. Warren Central, will likely topple whoever emerges from Sectional 8 in regional action. The Warriors, who beat Warsaw 34-0 in week two of the regular season, will be most likely joined by the only team to beat them in their 2024 campaign, Lawrence North.
The Southern semistate will produce a state finalist who will keep Central Indiana dominance rolling in this large-school class by defeating either Crown Point or Westfield, last years combatants in an exciting double-overtime semi-state clash won by the Bulldogs, 38-31.
We’ll see how much crow I’ll be eating along with my Thanksgiving turkey in two weeks from this morning, as far as the final four picks go.