I hope each and every one of you had happy and healthy Thanksgivings. To readers of our website, I hope you enjoyed last week’s online-only edition of the column.
After spending a week back home in Chicagoland with my friends and family, I am back on my couch writing this introduction on Monday morning. I can look out my window and see some snow on the roof of the apartment building next to mine from yesterday. Unless I missed something while I was out of town, I’m pretty sure this was worthy of being called “the first snow of the year.” I don’t like that.
I used to love snow when I was younger, sledding on it, building forts with my siblings in the front yard and then drinking some hot chocolate afterwards, finding the biggest piece of solid snow you can and then dropping it off of the highest surface possible. All great stuff. Then I became old enough to drive, and snow became one of my biggest enemies. You all know exactly what I’m talking about. At least this edition of the white flurries wasn’t too bad. Growing up is fun.
Driving isn’t the only way snow can make our lives harder. Beginning my third winter in Kosciusko County, I’ve already seen enough basketball games get postponed or flat out canceled than I can count. And it’s somehow always during sectionals too!
I will concede that though I do not like the cold or the snow, its arrival does signify one of my favorite times of the year. We’ve just passed Thanksgiving, leaving Christmas and New Years just a few weeks away. Now that I think about it, I do love Christmas time and seeing the snow fall with lights serving as a backdrop is one of life’s simplest pleasures. Plus, when I walk in the snow and the flurries land on my beard, I get to pretend I’m an old prospector making it by in the Rocky Mountains. Perhaps I was being too harsh to the frozen precipitation. Still, I won’t miss it when it starts to melt in the spring.
It is now practically December, the snowy final month of the sports calendar. It’s the last full month of the NFL season, resulting in the most important games of the year with guys giving their all to will their team to the playoffs. Last week was a monumental one in college football, as it was the final rivalry week before everything goes nuts with realignment next season. There are still plenty of bowl games to be played, with one of them hopefully being my Missouri Tigers in a New Year’s Six game.
I’m not going to go off on a super long tangent about the Tigers this week. They destroyed Arkansas last Friday, which is exactly what they were supposed to do. It’s the team’s first 10-win season win since 2014 with one more game to get to eleven. I can’t remember the last time I enjoyed a season from one of my favorite team’s this much. Happy to have been along for the ride.
Last week we welcomed boys basketball season back to Indiana. This week I will be at my first games of the season, and I’m beyond excited to get out to our local schools. There is a ton of local talent on display in the area this year, so I am once again telling you all to continue to go out and support our homegrown athletes!
I’ve got a slight rant to go on in this week’s quick hitters.
I have seen a lot of movies in 2023, good and bad. I have not felt so disappointed all year long as I was when me and my friends left the theater after seeing Napoleon on Saturday night. After I saw the initial trailer months ago, it became one of my more anticipated movies coming up. It did not deliver in the slightest. While telling the story of perhaps the greatest war tactician of all time, the film showed about five battle scenes, most of them brief, focusing more on the story of him and his wife Josephine. It didn’t know if it wanted to be a war movie, or a romance movie, and instead ended up being a sloppy, half-hearted mix with no direction whatsoever. As a fan of Joaquin Phoenix, it pains me to say that he was horribly miscast in this role, playing Napoleon as the caricature of a spoiled brat that was nowhere near as charismatic and charming as the real Bonaparte supposedly was. Rant over.
That quick hitter was not so quick so that will be all for today. I was able to tread water once again this week, going 7-7-1 heading into Monday Night Football. We have another week with a ton of teams on bye, so these picks will be crucial.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-9)
The first game of the week involves two teams that are heading in opposite directions. The Seahawks are falling apart before our eyes. Geno Smith is banged up and didn’t look great before he started getting hurt, the team is hovering around .500 and has a gauntlet of games coming up and the team overall has not looked like last year’s playoff team. The Cowboys seem to be ascending, especially when they play games at home. Dallas has been blowing teams out every time they play in Arlington, and I can see it happening again this week. The Cowboys have yet to take down a dominant team this season, and while Seattle is not that, it should be a better test at home than what they’ve been getting.
The Pick: Cowboys -9
1 O’CLOCK SUNDAY
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at Tennessee Titans
This is going to be one of those games that drives me crazy on Sunday afternoon, because I have a feeling no matter which way I lean, it’s going to go the opposite direction. That’s just the way the Titans have done me this season. The Colts are clearly the better team in this matchup, even holding the last playoff spot in the AFC heading into this game. But, a finger injury to Jonathan Taylor was announced Tuesday, and his status for this week’s game is up in the air. Tennessee is 4-1 at home this season and 0-6 on the road, but none of those home victories were against good football teams, which I truly believe the Colts are. The Taylor injury is a big one though, and I am going to pull the trigger on a heinous Titans pick.
The Pick: Titans +1.5
Detroit Lions (-4.5) at New Orleans Saints
All of a sudden, the awesome story that was the Lions’ start to the season has come crashing down. Detroit has not been playing well in recent weeks, culminating in an embarrassing loss at home to the Packers on Thanksgiving. The Saints on the other hand are officially my least favorite team to watch in the league. They are no fun at all and they don’t win games. I’m interested to see the Lions defense against the New Orleans offense in this one, as it’s an example of a stoppable force meeting a moveable object. New Orleans stinks, and I’m tired of picking them. I don’t have a ton of faith in the Lions as contenders anymore, but I think they should still take this one.
The Pick: Lions -4.5
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-3.5)
The Broncos have turned their season around completely, now sitting at above .500 in the midst of a long winning streak. It has not been profitable for me, as I’m pretty sure I’ve picked against them every single week during this stretch. The Texans were nearly able to take over first place in the AFC South from the Jaguars last weekend, but a last second field goal attempt doinked off the crossbar. I really like what Houston has been building this season, which is no secret as I’ve mentioned it nearly every week, but I’m tired of picking against a Broncos team that is clearly vastly improved over the version that started this campaign. The defense has been cooking and if they can pressure CJ Stroud, I think Russell Wilson can do enough offensively to get it done.
The Pick: Broncos +3.5
Miami Dolphins (-9.5) at Washington Commanders
Both of these teams will have some extra rest for this one, as the Commanders got crushed by the Cowboys on Thanksgiving while the Dolphins cruised past the Jets on Black Friday. Washington fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio after the loss, giving more question marks to an already horrid defense. I’ve said some mean things about Miami thanks to their inability to beat the top teams that they’ve played, but with the way the defense has been coming together and how strong the offense is on any given week, I do believe they are a team that can contend for a Super Bowl. They continue to take advantage of lower tiered teams here.
The Pick: Dolphins -9.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-6) at New England Patriots
Should the Los Angeles Chargers be favored by six points over anybody? This version of the New England Patriots might be one of the few teams I could see it happening against. The Chargers lost once again on Sunday night in a game where the defense finally showed up, but the supposedly high-flying offense was unable to get anything done. The Patriots switched quarterbacks at halftime and the two guys combined for seven points against the Giants. I really don’t know which way to lean here. The Chargers refuse to blow anybody out. It doesn’t matter who they are playing, the team loves to keep things close. On the other side, this Patriots team is so bad that I can’t convince myself to pick them in any capacity. I don’t feel good about it, but this should be a get-right game for Los Angeles.
The Pick: Chargers -6
Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
The Cardinals got crushed against the Rams on Sunday afternoon while the Steelers were able to find some groove on offense in their first game without Matt Canada as offensive coordinator. Pittsburgh totalled over 400 yards of offense against the Bengals, but weren’t able to convert that heavy total into many points. Even with that being said, I think the process will eventually lead to results, with this week’s game being a prime situation for the Steelers to explode. The Cardinals are rebuilding, while Pittsburgh is fighting for a spot in the playoffs. Simply put, they need this one more.
The Pick: Steelers -5.5
Atlanta Falcons (-3) at New York Jets
The Falcons took down the Saints last week to take over first place in the NFC South with a 5-6 record. The Jets started Tim Boyle at quarterback against the Dolphins and got exactly what they deserved. If I was a player on the Jets defense, I don’t know how I wouldn’t have quit by now. You’re on one of the better defensive units in the entire league but if you give up 10 points the game is over. As for the Falcons, are you sure you want to win that division? You’re not going to win a playoff game anyways, your draft pick is going to be nearly 10 spots lower and you have to play a first-place schedule next year. Doesn’t really sound like a great reward. That being said, Atlanta is playing better football right now so I’m going to go with them.
The Pick: Falcons -3
LATE AFTERNOON SLATE
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5)
The Panthers were unable to get it done against the Titans last week, while the Bucs fell to the Colts on the road. Carolina will head into this game with a new head coach after Frank Reich was fired just eleven games into his tenure. Tampa Bay has been able to do some good things on offense, mostly getting the ball to Mike Evans, but it has not translated to consistent winning in quite some time. I was pretty confident in my picking of the Panthers against Tennessee last week, and it didn’t work out. Despite their poor record, Tampa Bay is one of the better teams in the league at covering the spread this season.
The Pick: Buccaneers -5.5
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
This game is by far and away the best of the week, at least on paper. A rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game, hopefully San Fran will have a healthy quarterback for the entirety of this one. When I knew this game was happening this week, I made a mental note in my head to pick the Niners no matter what the line was, due to the fact that despite Philly having found countless ways to win this season, they have been outplayed a bunch. However, I was surprised to see that San Fran was favored in this game, especially with it being played in Philadelphia. You all know by now that I love the Niners, but I can’t look past the fact that a 10-1 Eagles team is an underdog at home. This is right up their alley.
The Pick: Eagles +2.5
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
The Browns were unable to get anything going offensively in a loss against the Broncos on Sunday. It didn’t help that the team went down 14-0 and had to pass more than they probably wanted with their second and third string quarterbacks. The Rams welcomed running back Kyren Williams from the IR last week, and he wasted no time getting back in on the fun, totalling over 200 yards and two scores in a win over the Cardinals. The Cleveland defense has been one of the best in the league everywhere but the red zone, an area where the Rams have done most of their damage this season. I trust one team a lot more than I trust the other at the quarterback position. I think Los Angeles stacks up another win as it fights towards a playoff spot.
The Pick: Rams -3.5
WAITIN’ ALL DAY FOR A SUNDAY NIGHT
Kansas City Chiefs (-6) at Green Bay Packers
The Chiefs finally figured out how to get it done offensively in a win against the Raiders on Sunday afternoon, scoring 17 points in the second half to break a long stretch of games without any points in the final 30 minutes. The Packers absolutely destroyed the Lions on Thanksgiving in a game that was much more lopsided than the final score indicated. I’ve seen the Packers do this a million times. Just when you think they’re dead and you write them off, they’re suddenly a game out of the playoffs. Jordan Love and his young receivers are improving by the week and Lambeau at night is a very hard place to play. For some reason, I think Green Bay is all the way back and they put together a nice performance in prime time.
The Pick: Packers +6
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
The Bengals offense was unable to do anything last week in their first game without Joe Burrow under center. The Jaguars got a huge win over the Texans to take firm control over the AFC South. These are two teams that are heading in opposite directions. The Bengals really don’t have much to play for anymore with no Burrow to lead the way, while Jacksonville is in contention to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC if the team can keep winning. I know a few weeks ago we were worried about the Jags after they got crushed by the Niners, but they’ve done nothing but produce since then. They get the big win in this one.
The Pick: Jaguars -8.5
On bye week: Bears, Bills, Giants, Raiders, Ravens, Vikings
Last week I decided that I loved a bunch of underdogs and it ended up being the favorites that ruled the weekend. This time around, I’m leaning pretty heavily on the favorites, so we’ll have to wait and see what happens.
Cheers.
Last Week’s Record: 7-8-1
Season Record: 87-75-5