I’ve been in an outstanding mood over the past couple of weeks, which is something I’m going to chalk up to the Christmas spirit.
I love Christmas time. The movies, the sweets, football getting closer to the playoffs. There’s so much about this time of year to love and be thankful for. I got to see my family a week early this year, as I went home to Chicago this past weekend to celebrate my Nonna’s 90th birthday. Even though I’ll be heading back this weekend as well, the one-day trip was made worth it when I saw her surprised face when I showed up at lunch.
Living here in Warsaw and working six days a week, I don’t get to see my family and friends as much as I’d like to, so getting all of this time during the holidays is something I wouldn’t trade for the world. I’m excited to go back home again this weekend and see everybody as we eat food, watch football and exchange gifts in our annual White Elephant.
I don’t know how to transition here, so I’m just going to spend the next few hundred words telling you all about some of my favorite parts of the holidays.
My favorite Christmas movie is probably either Elf or the 2000 version of How the Grinch Stole Christmas with Jim Carrey. I know those are pretty basic answers, but having been born in 1997, they were staples of my childhood that I revisit every year. Rounding out the top-3 is the severely underrated Fred Claus. Some honorable mentions are Christmas Vacation and my favorite animated special, The Year Without a Santa Claus.
I am also a firm believer that a movie doesn’t have to be about Christmas specifically to be a Christmas movie. For example, I mentioned a few weeks ago that the Harry Potter movies, especially the earlier ones, are exclusively viewed during the holiday season for me. Batman Returns is another good one. If it makes you feel happy and you enjoy watching it with family or when the weather starts to get cold, that’s a Christmas movie in my eyes.
I can’t remember how old I was exactly, but the first Christmas gift I remember opening up was a Nintendo GameCube when I was a kid. It was my first gaming console and I still remember it fondly. I wish I could go back in time and play Metroid Prime or Super Mario Sunshine for the first time again. That was a gift that created a lifelong gamer and was the first of many consoles to be opened under the tree. Thanks Mom and Dad!
This year was the year I decided to finally buy and set up my first Christmas tree. It’s nothing too crazy, just a four-footer from Walmart, but it looks great when it's lit up with all of the ornaments shining. Looking at it when I get home from work each night is enough to brighten my spirits.
When I was younger, I always looked forward to catching some marquee NBA matchups on Christmas Day. While I might tune in from time to time on the 25th this year, I am looking forward to three fun NFL games, headlined by a huge contest between the Ravens and 49ers in the evening. We’ll get to that in due time. I can’t wait for the topic of keeping or trading Justin Fields to dominate discussion at my family’s dinner table!
The holidays are the perfect time to reconnect with family members we haven’t seen in awhile and to remember and appreciate the little things that really matter in life. I hope each and every one of you have an enjoyable holiday filled with love, memories and all the Christmas cookies you can stuff your face with.
Quick hitters before we begin:
It turns out that the Bears are unfortunately not back, contrary to what I reported last week. We will get to that later as well.
We are now just over a week away from Missouri football taking on Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. I’m sure I’ll bring it up next week as well, but I’ve been patiently waiting for this game ever since it was announced. A big game on a huge stage against one of the biggest brand names college football has to offer? Sign me up. I can’t wait to crush them.
Somehow, someway, I was able to lose 10 pounds over the last two months with minimal exercise and a poor diet. It makes me wonder how much weight I could lose if I actually started trying to. Stay tuned for updates.
As I’m writing this, my most anticipated package of the season arrived at my doorstep. Christmas ornaments for my beard. Can’t wait to bust those out this week.
I finally had the week I was looking for in the win column, posting 10 wins before Monday Night Football in a domination of the field. Let’s keep that hot streak going, and we should have no problem finishing above .500 with just three weeks left to go.
(Side note: there’s only three weeks left of regular season football! How did this happen! Enjoy every game like it’s the last. We aren’t too far off from that being the case.)
Here we go.
THURSDAY NIGHT
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5)
This is actually a huge game in terms of both of these teams keeping their playoff hopes alive. To keep things simple: whoever wins this one is going to have the inside track at securing the seventh (or even sixth) seed in the NFC. I know the Saints have strung some wins together over the past few weeks, and I’ve been pretty harsh in my analysis of the team, but the Rams have been operating on a different level over the past month or so. There are some juggernauts atop the NFC, but nobody wants to run into Los Angeles in the first round.
The Pick: Rams -4.5
SATURDAY SHOWDOWNS
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The first of two Saturday games comes from Pittsburgh, where the slumping Steelers will try to get back on track against the surging Bengals. Jake Browning has carried Cincy into the playoff picture since taking over for Joe Burrow. This is the perfect spot for a Steelers team that is reeling to get a big win at home when nobody believes, but I’m not so sure this team is still capable. The defense is bad and the offense hasn’t gotten anything going since Kenny Pickett got hurt. The Bengals seem to be peaking at the right time, and they get it done.
The Pick: Bengals -1.5
Buffalo Bills (-12.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
If there is one team in the AFC that I would want no part of playing right now, it’s probably the Bills. Buffalo has turned it around after a disastrous start to the season and is going up against a Chargers side that fired head coach Brandon Staley about six months too late after giving up 63 points to the Raiders on Thursday night. Even though I expect Los Angeles to have somewhat of an interim-coach bump, I don’t think it’ll help much here. The Bills keep rolling with another big win.
The Pick: Bills -12.5
1 O’CLOCK SUNDAY
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons
This is a line that scares me. The Colts have been playing great football and are currently tied for first in the AFC South. The Falcons have dropped two games in a row, including last week’s loss to the lowly Panthers. Even with all that being said, Indy is only favored by less than two points here. Once again, Desmond Ridder has been benched as the starter in Atlanta, leaving the door open for Taylor Heinicke to make some noise. For some reason, I think Heinicke and company pull this one off. If I’m wrong, blame it on the line.
The Pick: Falcons +1.5
Detroit Lions (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
The Lions looked like the team that took the league by storm a few months ago in a thrashing of the Broncos last week while the Vikings turned to Nick Mullens at quarterback and looked good on offense before falling in overtime to the Bengals. This is a big one for Detroit, as the Lions can clinch the NFC North for the first time in my lifetime with a win here. I think they will get it. Detroit plays a lot better indoors than it does in cold weather, and the dome in Minneapolis is a perfect place to keep the good times rolling.
The Pick: Lions -3
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Houston Texans
The Browns did it again last week, coming from behind late to earn a win over my Bears. The Texans also got a big win after trailing late, defeating the Titans in overtime without rookie sensation CJ Stroud. I would think Stroud is able to clear concussion protocol for this game, but he’s in for a rude welcome party in the form of a Browns defense that has been making life incredibly difficult for quarterbacks all season. I think the defense and another big day from Joe Flacco clears the path for a Cleveland win.
The Pick: Browns -2.5
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Carolina Panthers
This is a game I would have no problem picking a few weeks ago but is suddenly a struggle. The Packers looked like they were ready to take the next step, but have stumbled in their last two games. The Panthers have looked frisky in recent weeks, earning their second win of the year last week against Atlanta. The Packers biggest struggles this season have come on defense, and the Carolina offense is the worst in the league. Jordan Love has continued to improve by the week, I think he has a big game in a win here.
The Pick: Packers -4.5
Washington Commanders at New York Jets (-3)
Aaron Rodgers has finally decided he will not play this season after tearing his Achilles at nearly 40 years old. It’s apparently because the Jets are out of the playoffs and no other reason. The man always did love the attention! The Commanders have fallen off a cliff in recent weeks, most recently benching Sam Howell for Jacoby Brissett in a loss to the Rams. Howell will be back as the starter this week, but he’ll have a tough task against a solid Jets defense. No matter who is starting at QB for New York, even against a bad defense, I like Washington here.
The Pick: Commanders +3
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans
It was an awesome night for the Seahawks on Monday night, as former Missouri quarterback Drew Lock led a 92-yard drive in the final minutes to help Seattle stun the Eagles while snapping a four game skid. The Titans struggled offensively in a loss to Houston, with Derrick Henry being bottled up completely. Starting QB Will Levis got hurt at the end of that game, and is in danger of missing this one. I know the Titans have played much better at home than on the road this year, but Seattle is just the better team.
The Pick: Seahawks -2.5
LATE AFTERNOON SLATE
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5)
Just a few weeks ago, Jacksonville had a chance to get the inside track at the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Three straight losses later, the team is fighting for its playoff lives. The Buccaneers have come on strong in the later half of the season, now sitting in first place in the NFC South. I don’t know who I like in this game. Jacksonville has shown to be a very good team when everything is working, but it hasn’t been working for about a month. Baker Mayfield has been balling, but I think Jacksonville gets back on track here.
The Pick: Jaguars +1.5
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (-4.5)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but the Bears were up by double digits in the fourth quarter of last week’s game and they lost. Arizona looked good on offense last weekend, scoring nearly 30 points on the 49ers. This will be a tougher game than Bears fans will probably want to admit, but Arizona has been a much better team since Kyler Murray returned, a fact that I recite every week. Regardless, the Bears get it done at home.
The Pick: Bears -4.5
Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)
This is without a doubt the game I’m looking forward to the most on Christmas Eve. This is a very important game for both sides. Each of these teams have put up some crazy numbers against some bad teams, but both teams have also struggled against the top competition they have gone against. To put it simply: this is the Fraud Bowl! Whoever loses this game is going to answer a week’s worth of questions about not being able to get it done when it matters most. I would assume Tyreek Hill is good to go for this one, and that will make a big difference. I like Miami playing at home with a strong run game, needing a win to keep a stranglehold on the division.
The Pick: Dolphins -1.5
WAITIN’ ALL DAY FOR A SUNDAY NIGHT
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-6.5)
The Patriots are currently the only team besides the Carolina Panthers that has a shot at securing the No. 1 pick in the draft. The Broncos finally had their winning ways come to an end at the hands of the Lions on Saturday. Denver has improved a lot this season, but they are not a team that is going to dominate you on offense. I think they do win this game, but I think New England is able to do enough to stick around and cover.
The Pick: Patriots +6.5
CHRISTMAS GAME DAY
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
The first of three Christmas Day games comes to you from Arrowhead, where the Chiefs will try to slow down a Raiders’ side that scored zero points two weeks ago and 63 points last week. Kansas City was finally able to do what it wanted to offensively in last week’s win, but still had to deal with some wide receiver drops. Las Vegas started strong the last time these two played, but the Chiefs still ended up covering a lopsided spread. I think something similar happens here. The Raiders crushed it on offense last week, but it was against a Chargers team that quit after five minutes.
The Pick: Chiefs -10
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-11.5)
This is going to be a mistake, but I like the Giants here. At least to cover 12 points. The Eagles' struggles have extended from the defensive side of the ball to the offense as well. Jalen Hurts can’t seem to do anything except the tush push, the running game isn’t where it should be and turnovers have become a massive problem. Tommy DeVito had it all come crashing down against the Saints last week, so there’s definitely some concern here. Either way, this is the perfect spot for Philly to get right, almost too perfect, which is why it doesn’t happen.
The Pick: Giants +11.5
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
This is it. What better way to close out Christmas with a massive game between the two best teams in football. Both teams need to win this one to pretty much wrap up the one seed. Baltimore will have a chance to run the ball well here, as the Cardinals were able to exploit the Niner run defense pretty effectively last week. However, the Niners gave up nearly 30 points and were still able to cover a 13-point spread. This offense is one of the best I’ve ever seen. I can’t go against San Fran here, they’re the best team in the sport.
The Pick: 49ers -5.5
I hope you all have a Merry Christmas, full of cheer, fun and football. Here’s to hoping Santa got my letter asking for a perfect week of picks.
(Also, I was redoing some math this week and it turns out I had skipped a week earlier this season when compiling my record. It is now fully updated.)
Cheers.
Last Week’s Record: 10-5-1
Season Record: 113-103-8