A few months ago, my colleague Roger Grossman dedicated his column to Tippecanoe Valley football after the sectional draw paired the undefeated Vikings with eventual state champions Bishop Chatard in the first round of the IHSAA playoffs.
It was a very good read, as Roger’s columns always are. A part that is sticking out to me today though, is this sentence: “You are learning one of the most important lessons you will ever learn in your life - life is not fair.”
This past weekend, the Florida State football team learned the same lesson. Life is not fair.
The Seminoles, one of three undefeated Power 5 conference champions, were left out of the four-team College Football Playoff in favor of one-loss Texas and Alabama.
That’s not the whole story though. Florida State’s star quarterback, Jordan Travis, suffered a gruesome leg injury a few weeks ago and is done for the year. In Saturday’s ACC championship game, the Seminoles were forced to play their third-string QB. Even though FSU won to cap off an undefeated year, it didn’t look great.
Clearly, the committee saw this as enough of a reason to keep an undefeated team out of the playoff. Is it true that Florida State is not one of the four best teams in the country without Travis? Most likely. But the fact of the matter is that the Seminoles have not lost a game this season. The players in that locker room, and there are far more than just Travis, have to feel cheated. They did everything that was asked of them. They trusted the process. They went 1-0 every week. They fought through the adversity of losing their leader in horrific fashion and still found ways to win without him (twice).
Life is not fair.
It’s not like having your starting quarterback is a criteria for making the playoffs either. Remember when Ohio State won the national championship in 2014? Cardale Jones started the Big 10 Championship game and both playoff games for the Buckeyes that year. He was the third string QB.
If only this had happened next year, when the playoff will be 12 teams as opposed to four. Florida State would have the honor of being one of the first teams in the country to host a playoff game, and with a win there, would have a chance to prove it against the top four the next week. Unfortunately, we are still a year away, and in the era of the transfer portal, who knows what the Seminoles will look like next season. For all we know, this could have been their best chance for a long time to get in.
By the way, how does Jordan Travis feel about all of this? In a tweet after Sunday’s decision, Travis said that he wishes he broke his leg earlier in the season so his team could prove themselves without him. Think about that for a second.
Life is not fair.
Georgia is another team that can make a case that they were screwed. The Bulldogs were the undisputed No. 1 team in the country all season long. Back-to-back defending national champions. Georgia lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship game, its first loss in 30 games, and were dropped to sixth, out of the playoffs all together.
Really? If the criteria that kept FSU out of the playoffs was that the committee had to choose the best four teams in the country, how the heck was Georgia not one of those four? On a neutral field, I’m taking UGA over every team that’s in the field right now, even the Alabama side that just beat them. We saw just two years ago what happened when those two sides met for the second time. This time, however, Georgia will not be given that opportunity.
For what it’s worth, I am happy with the playoffs that we did get. Michigan-Alabama and Washington-Texas are two great matchups and I will be locked in to both of them. But that’s not what this is about.
Sure, I’ve said multiple times in this column that life is not fair, but everybody already knows that. What matters more, is how you respond to it. Georgia and Florida State will play each other in the Orange Bowl, one of the biggest in the country. Both teams head into that game with a choice. They can spend this next month breezing through practice, angry that they were snubbed, and come out and give half of an effort. OR, they can anchor down even harder than before, practice their butts off, knowing the team on the other side has as much to prove as they do, and try to find a way to end the season on as high of a note as possible.
Life has not been fair to either of these programs this past week. Georgia and Florida State can let this snub define them, or they can show the world what they are made of. The choice is theirs.
Movie-heavy quick hitters for the week:
Stephanie and I had a very busy weekend on the couch, starting with our first Christmas movie of the year on Friday night, Jingle All the Way. Talk about a holiday classic. What’s better than Arnold Schwarzengger running down the street while reciting the names of Santa’s reindeer?
On Saturday, we watched the first three Harry Potter movies after I was stunned to find out Stephanie had not seen any of them. She was hooked immediately. One of my favorite movie series of all time, I love watching those films around the holidays, they just make me feel good.
However, the crown jewel of the movie watching weekend took place in the theater on Sunday night, when we went to go see Godzilla: Minus One. One of the three best movies I’ve seen this year, this was a masterpiece. A perfect mix of human drama with giant monster destruction. I didn’t even realize the entire movie was in Japanese until it was over, I was that locked in. Stephanie has already claimed it as her favorite movie of the year.
I went a little long on this week’s intro so let’s get straight into the picks. Last week was not great, so let’s get back to work.
THURSDAY NIGHT
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)
The only reason I’m picking this game, let alone speaking of it at all. Kenny Pickett is hurt for the Steelers so Bears legend (using that term VERY generously) Mitch Trubisky will be the starter for Pittsburgh. Last week, the Patriots turned to Bailey Zappe as the team’s new starter, and he rewarded them by scoring zero points. I hope you don’t mind my honesty, but this game is going to stink. New England has been just as bad as Cartolina in recent weeks when talking about the worst teams in football, but the Steelers very clearly still have a ton of issues. The Patriots have combined for 13 points in the last three games. I can’t pick them with good conscience.
The Pick: Steelers -6
1 O’CLOCK SUNDAY
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
What a turnaround season it has been for the Colts. Indy is still sitting in a playoff spot if the season ended today after earning another big win over the Titans in overtime last week. The Bengals participated in one of the most entertaining games of the week on Monday night, taking down the Jaguars in OT as well. Jake Browning looked great in his second game filling in for the injured Joe Burrow. The Bengals still have so much talent on that roster and with Browning starting to figure it out, who’s to say Cincy can’t find a way to sneak into that final spot? I like the Bengals, but the Colts have been absolutely rolling.
The Pick: Colts -1.5
Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears
The Lions were beating the Saints 21-0 after just seven minutes last week before winning by only five points late. The Bears had a bye last week after defeating the Vikings two Mondays ago without scoring a touchdown. I’ll be honest with all of you. While I do not want Matt Eberflus to remain the Chicago head coach next season, he has completely turned this defense around and into one of the better units in the league over the past few weeks. Obviously, on the other side, the Lions defense has fallen apart recently and is a real problem for a Detroit team that has high hopes for the playoffs. Who do I think is going to come out on top this week? I think the Lions are able to take advantage of what they learned in the last matchup between these two and get it done.
The Pick: Lions -3
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-3)
Another week, another quarterback injured. Trevor Lawrence went down late in Monday night’s game with what’s being called a high-ankle sprain. While he probably will be back for the playoffs, he is unlikely to play here. It will probably be CJ Beathard for Jacksonville. The Browns, after starting the season out so strong, are in a tailspin after a loss to the Rams with Joe Flacco starting at QB. The quarterback play is not going to be great in this one, so honestly, I’d rather bet the under than pick a winner here, but that’s not what we do here. I like the Browns to get back on track with a win here.
The Pick: Browns -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
This is sneakily a big game this week, as the Falcons can really create some separation in the NFC South with a win in this one. The Falcons didn’t look great in last week’s victory, scoring only 13 points in a win over the Jets. The Bucs didn’t exactly light it up either, barely beating the league-worst Panthers. Both of these teams have solid defenses while struggling offensively at times, which has been typical for this division all season long. As I mentioned last week, nobody should want to win this division, but someone has to. While I still do believe that team will be the Falcons, I kind of like the Bucs in this one.
The Pick: Buccaneers +2.5
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)
Don’t look now, but the Rams are starting to turn things around after stringing together some wins and looking good doing so. The Ravens had a week off to regroup and it came at the perfect time. This feels like one of those games where Baltimore is playing at home against a team that is feeling themselves and just absolutely dominates them. Remember the Lions and Seahawks games? This could be a similar result. As of right now, I’m probably picking the Ravens as the best team in the AFC. They cruise to a big win here.
The Pick: Ravens -7.5
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
This is the second game this week that I want no part of. Neither of these teams are any good or fun to watch, but that’s what Can Connor Cover is all about. We don’t just stick to the sexy games, we pick all of them. The Panthers fought hard and covered against the Bucs last week but were still unable to come away with a second win this season. The Saints lost to the Lions but looked good while mounting a comeback. The starting QB for New Orleans is up in the air as Derek Carr got hurt last week. This was a close game earlier this season when these two met, and I believe this is going to be another close one. Give me the Panthers to keep this a one-score game.
The Pick: Panthers +5.5
Houston Texans (-5.5) at New York Jets
The Texans are coming for that final playoff spot in the AFC, but will have to do so without star rookie receiver Tank Dell, who was lost for the year after breaking his leg as a lead blocker on a run up the middle. One of the most baffling personnel decisions I’ve seen this year. Speaking of baffling personnel decisions, the Jets released Tim Boyle this week, who was just named the replacement of Zach Wilson two weeks ago. Wilson has been asked to come back and start again, but is reluctant to. What a disaster. I do want to give credit to the New York defense, because that unit has had multiple opportunities to quit this season and hasn’t just yet. I don’t think it’ll be the defense’s fault that the Jets don’t cover here. It’ll be the offense once again.
The Pick: Texans -5.5
LATE AFTERNOON SLATE
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)
Another one of the more entertaining games of the week happened on Thursday, when Seattle lost a shootout to the Cowboys. The most anticipated game of last week involved the Niners but didn’t end up being all that, as San Fran just destroyed the Eagles. The Niners are rolling over everybody again after surviving the mid-season losing streak and are undefeated since the bye. Seattle looked good last week but I’m not sure they can sustain what San Francisco is able to put up offensively. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. This is the best team in the NFL and I have to pick them every week. I know I didn’t last week and I’m not making the same mistake two weeks in a row.
The Pick: 49ers -10.5
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders
Both of these teams were on a bye last week and I’ll be honest, I kind of forgot both of them existed. The Raiders have been one of the more improved teams in the league since firing Josh McDaniels, while the Vikings have been kind of slowing down after their long winning streak. This is a game that Minnesota needs, but I’m not so sure they get it. Aiden O’Connell has played really well since taking over as the starting quarterback in Vegas, while Josh Dobbs has regressed every week he’s been in Minnesota. I like the home team in this one to get it done and give another win to interim coach Antonio Pierce.
The Pick: Raiders +3
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
I had to double take when I saw this line at first. The Chargers, who scored six points against the pathetic Patriots last week, are favored in this game against a Broncos side that has put together some great football over the last month plus? I don’t buy it. Even if this is one of those lines that’s supposed to throw me off, there’s no chance I’m picking a Charger side that has looked horrible on both sides of the ball at points throughout the season. These two teams are trending in different directions. Give me the team with something to play for.
The Pick: Broncos +2.5
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)
This is the definition of a must-win game for the Bills. If Buffalo can’t get a win in this one, their playoff hopes are pretty much dashed. This is a big game for Kansas City too, as after last week’s loss to the Packers, the Chiefs need to play catch up to get back into the position to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The more time that goes by, the less this Chiefs team looks like the team of recent years that has won two Super Bowls. I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if they make their way to Las Vegas this year and win it once again, but they have a lot of work to do. Buffalo has been playing very well recently and they are not a team that is afraid of going to Arrowhead and coming away with a win. Give me another underdog.
The Pick: Bills +1.5
WAITIN’ ALL DAY FOR A SUNDAY NIGHT
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)
Another big game for both of these teams this week. The Eagles will no doubt have something to prove in this one after getting absolutely crushed by the Niners last week. The Cowboys will have the rest advantage after beating Seattle on Thursday night. When these two teams met a few weeks ago, Dallas was probably the team that should have come out on top. This is definitely a game all football fans will have circled this week, and I think the Cowboys finally find a way to pick up a win against an elite team on Sunday night.
The Pick: Cowboys -3.5
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) at New York Giants
In the most frustrating, yet not surprising, turn of events ever, the Packers are suddenly good again. This is upsetting news to say the least, but it is unfortunately the reality we are now living in. The Giants have strung some wins together with Tommy DeVito under center, and will be well rested coming off of a bye. Unfortunately for the G-Men and myself, I don’t think that’s going to matter much. Jordan Love is going to be an amazing quarterback for the next 20 years, only to win one Super Bowl, but he’s going to beat the Bears twice a year until I’m 40. This is disgusting.
The Pick: Packers -6.5
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-13.5)
That’s right, there are two Monday Night Football games this week. Why? I don’t know! But the last thing I’m going to do is complain about extra football on my TV on a weeknight. I mean, this isn’t necessarily going to be a great game, but I’ll probably tune in regardless. I was a little harsh on the Dolphins early in the season, but this team is shaping into one of the best in the league in recent weeks. Miami takes care of business against teams lower than them on the totem pole and the Titans are now different. I like Miami to roll.
The Pick: Dolphins -13.5
On the bye: Cardinals, Commanders
I need a big week in the worst way possible. I’ve been hovering around .500 and having losing weeks for far too long now. Time to step it up.
Cheers.
Last Week’s Record: 5-7-1
Season Record: 92-82-6