Pandemic Still In Early Stages In U.S., Health Officer Estimates
April 4, 2020 at 2:57 a.m.
Pandemic Still In Early Stages In U.S., Health Officer Estimates
By David [email protected]
He made the statement during a press conference with local leaders Friday morning in the Warsaw City Council chambers. Weekly press conferences will be held at 10:30 a.m. Wednesday and will be livestreamed on the city’s website for the public.
“As you know it’s a very dynamic situation. What I tell you today could change tomorrow,” Remington said.
As an example of that, he said the county health department reported eight confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Thursday. On his way to the press conference Friday morning, he called his communicable health nurse, Teresa Reed, and asked her for the latest count of confirmed coronavirus cases. She told him 10. A few minutes later, he called her back for something he forgot to ask. Reed told him it moved up to 11 confirmed cases.
“The cases will certainly come up quickly now,” Remington said. “In a baseball game of nine innings, my estimation is that we are about in the second inning. The legs of this curve are uncertain, but probably a two-month spread – eight innings – maybe nine, maybe some extra innings, is very likely.”
He said the count for Kosciusko County is still pretty small, but if one looks at the Indiana State Department of Health dashboard, “you’ll see how those numbers have really escalated in the metropolitan areas and quickly coming up in some of the more rural areas. We will experience that. I can not predict perfectly what that will be.”
He thinks the month of April will be “heavy,” especially two and three weeks from now. The month of May will be “heavy,” too.
“Perhaps toward the end of May, early June, we’ll have definitely felt an easing off. Whether we feel comfortable in bringing our foot off the gas with some of the hardcore social distancing executive orders, is yet to be determined,” Remington said.
Calling the coronavirus pandemic “a very respectable event,” he said he’s been the county health officer for over 20 years and the county has seen a handful of big events. “It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this is clearly the biggest event from a population, depth of spread, population impact from those twentysome years,” he said.
The community has the tools to thrive despite the pandemic, Remington said. “We will get through this.” As he meets more people involved in the fight against the pandemic and learns more about what everyone is doing, he said he’s been reassured that the community “is truly blessed.”
Talking about businesses that have remained open in this rural county, Remington said there will be cases and undoubtedly there have already been cases that are starting to impact some of the shops.
“As a health department, we will spring into those environments in a traditional case contact investigation motif,” he said. “That is, we start with the latest call for a positive case and we track down who their contacts are. If it involves a large employer in the county, or any employer in the county, and it looks like there may be a pool of contacts there, we will have that conversation.”
Any employer that quickly sees how this can impact them when the health department asks them to quarantine a significant number of their workforce is “immediately even more deeply committed to all the basics of the public health messaging that you’ve been hearing,” Remington said.
He said that social distancing and handwashing, etc., need to be in place at all businesses, not just as people move about the community.
“We do have carve-outs with essential businesses aplenty in this county,” Remington said. “And, I don’t sense any trouble with that at this point. Whether or not the governor will move in some more restrictive action is hard to predict.”
If the public is wondering if they should wear masks in public – which there is a shortage of – Remington said the Center for Disease Control and Prevention is wrestling with that very same question. The CDC has taken a conservative posture on the question and held short of strongly encouraging the entire population of the United States to wear a mask when out and about, he said. Meanwhile, other countries have taken another step.
“My simple word today is, sure, wear a mask,” he said. “Can I tell you that you must wear a mask? Have I personally felt the need to wear a mask when I’m walking into the city building this morning? I would say no. But if you want to wear a mask, wear a mask. And perhaps if you are in that high-risk subgrouping, wear a mask, particularly if you think you are stepping into some potentially crowded environment you just can’t help it.”
He said the mask should not be a medical-grade mask as those should be reserved for those who really should have them.
He made the statement during a press conference with local leaders Friday morning in the Warsaw City Council chambers. Weekly press conferences will be held at 10:30 a.m. Wednesday and will be livestreamed on the city’s website for the public.
“As you know it’s a very dynamic situation. What I tell you today could change tomorrow,” Remington said.
As an example of that, he said the county health department reported eight confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Thursday. On his way to the press conference Friday morning, he called his communicable health nurse, Teresa Reed, and asked her for the latest count of confirmed coronavirus cases. She told him 10. A few minutes later, he called her back for something he forgot to ask. Reed told him it moved up to 11 confirmed cases.
“The cases will certainly come up quickly now,” Remington said. “In a baseball game of nine innings, my estimation is that we are about in the second inning. The legs of this curve are uncertain, but probably a two-month spread – eight innings – maybe nine, maybe some extra innings, is very likely.”
He said the count for Kosciusko County is still pretty small, but if one looks at the Indiana State Department of Health dashboard, “you’ll see how those numbers have really escalated in the metropolitan areas and quickly coming up in some of the more rural areas. We will experience that. I can not predict perfectly what that will be.”
He thinks the month of April will be “heavy,” especially two and three weeks from now. The month of May will be “heavy,” too.
“Perhaps toward the end of May, early June, we’ll have definitely felt an easing off. Whether we feel comfortable in bringing our foot off the gas with some of the hardcore social distancing executive orders, is yet to be determined,” Remington said.
Calling the coronavirus pandemic “a very respectable event,” he said he’s been the county health officer for over 20 years and the county has seen a handful of big events. “It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this is clearly the biggest event from a population, depth of spread, population impact from those twentysome years,” he said.
The community has the tools to thrive despite the pandemic, Remington said. “We will get through this.” As he meets more people involved in the fight against the pandemic and learns more about what everyone is doing, he said he’s been reassured that the community “is truly blessed.”
Talking about businesses that have remained open in this rural county, Remington said there will be cases and undoubtedly there have already been cases that are starting to impact some of the shops.
“As a health department, we will spring into those environments in a traditional case contact investigation motif,” he said. “That is, we start with the latest call for a positive case and we track down who their contacts are. If it involves a large employer in the county, or any employer in the county, and it looks like there may be a pool of contacts there, we will have that conversation.”
Any employer that quickly sees how this can impact them when the health department asks them to quarantine a significant number of their workforce is “immediately even more deeply committed to all the basics of the public health messaging that you’ve been hearing,” Remington said.
He said that social distancing and handwashing, etc., need to be in place at all businesses, not just as people move about the community.
“We do have carve-outs with essential businesses aplenty in this county,” Remington said. “And, I don’t sense any trouble with that at this point. Whether or not the governor will move in some more restrictive action is hard to predict.”
If the public is wondering if they should wear masks in public – which there is a shortage of – Remington said the Center for Disease Control and Prevention is wrestling with that very same question. The CDC has taken a conservative posture on the question and held short of strongly encouraging the entire population of the United States to wear a mask when out and about, he said. Meanwhile, other countries have taken another step.
“My simple word today is, sure, wear a mask,” he said. “Can I tell you that you must wear a mask? Have I personally felt the need to wear a mask when I’m walking into the city building this morning? I would say no. But if you want to wear a mask, wear a mask. And perhaps if you are in that high-risk subgrouping, wear a mask, particularly if you think you are stepping into some potentially crowded environment you just can’t help it.”
He said the mask should not be a medical-grade mask as those should be reserved for those who really should have them.
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