News Views: Yellowstone Is Not About To Blow
February 15, 2019 at 10:19 p.m.
By Gary [email protected]
Scientists are always monitoring the volcano because they are concerned about a 400-mile-deep plume of magma underneath it.
It’s not that the thing is going to erupt any time soon, as some certain British tabloids might have you believe.
But the consensus is that the volcano is very much alive and a bit more active lately than it has been in the past. Of course, when you talk about the past in the context of volcanoes, you’re really talking about the past.
Scientists say the Yellowstone volcano has erupted three times – 2.1 million years ago, 1.2 million years ago and 640,000 years ago.
I suppose they know this by examining layers of lava or something.
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Scientists also say that if there was a strong enough earthquake in the vicinity of the magma plume, there could be a cataclysmic eruption within a couple of weeks. What the earthquake would do is unleash that 400-mile-deep magma plume.
Again, this is not something that scientists believe is imminent or even likely, but they continually monitor the huge puddle of molten rock beneath the Yellowstone volcano just in case.
Robert Smith, a professor in the department of geology and geophysics at the University of Utah, has been researching the geodynamics and evolution of the Yellowstone volcano for decades.
He helps operate the Yellowstone seismograph network.
In a 2014 History Channel documentary he talked about the seismographs and the technology designed to detect any change in activity.
In the documentary, he said, “We have seismic vaults with seismographs inside. These send signals along a network and report it back to my computer in Salt Lake City. The seismograph does two things – it records the earthquakes that are active, then they also scan the subsurface we cannot see. We can reconstruct a 3D picture like an MRI scan by recording thousands of earthquakes.”
This mapping system – which has more than 150 seismometers – is how scientists figured out there is a 400-mile magma plume rising from the core of the Earth.
According to Smith’s homepage at the University of Utah website, lots of new research has focused on Yellowstone hotspot geodynamics as well as geophysical imaging of the hotspot and its associated mantle plume. Further work explores the volcanic and tectonic processes driving earthquakes and ground deformation, he notes.
He says 10 new papers since 2007 have employed seismic, GPS and gravity measurements to better understand earthquake processes and related hazards.
Of course, they can’t – and don’t – really predict anything, but one thing is clear: If that magma plume reaches the surface, it would be big trouble. Fortunately, an event like that is not very likely.
The last full-scale eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano, the Lava Creek eruption – that’s the one 640,000 years ago – tossed some 240 cubic miles of rock, dust and volcanic ash into the sky.
That’s some pretty extreme stuff.
If that happened, it would be bad. It could cover half the southwest U.S. with 3 feet of rock, dust and ash. It would damage buildings, shut down power plants and destroy cropland.
In 2014 a group of scientists published a paper, “Modeling ash fall distribution from a Yellowstone supereruption.” They said the volcano was capable of burying states like Wyoming, Montana, Idaho and Colorado in 3 feet of harmful volcanic ash. Places as far away as Chicago could see up to a foot of ash.
That could kill plants and animals, crush roofs and ruin all sorts of electrical equipment:
The good news is that experts at the U.S. Geological Survey say they "see no evidence that another such cataclysmic eruption will occur at Yellowstone in the foreseeable future. Recurrence intervals of these events are neither regular nor predictable."
In 2013, a study by the University of Utah showed that the "size of the magma body beneath Yellowstone is significantly larger than had been thought." But even then, the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory was quick to point out, “Although fascinating, the new findings do not imply increased geologic hazards at Yellowstone, and certainly do not increase the chances of a 'supereruption' in the near future. Contrary to some media reports, Yellowstone is not 'overdue' for a supereruption.”
Nevertheless, some media outlets still like to make an eruption seem imminent.
Some headlines:
“Yellowstone volcano: How scientists ‘intensely monitor’ rising column of HOT MAGMA”
“Yellowstone volcano: Thermometers spike as HOTTEST temperatures on Earth are recorded”
“Yellowstone volcano ERUPTION can trigger chain of aftershocks over ‘THOUSANDS of years'”
“Yellowstone volcano: RISING magma chamber is a likely eruption trigger, scientists warn”
“Yellowstone volcano ERUPTIONS are 'more frequent than previously thought' – SHOCK study”
I love how they use ALL?CAPS for emphasis.
Despite all the hoopla, science writer Robin Andrews at Forbes.com notes the following:
“As it stands, Yellowstone probably can’t even erupt at all at present. In order for that to happen, its huge, two-step magma reservoir has to contain at least 50 percent mobile, molten material. At the moment, it’s at a frankly pathetic 15 percent. An eruption is not about to happen.”
Whew.
Some scientists say that a big eruption might happen in another 200,000 years – give or take 50,000.
I can live with that.
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Scientists are always monitoring the volcano because they are concerned about a 400-mile-deep plume of magma underneath it.
It’s not that the thing is going to erupt any time soon, as some certain British tabloids might have you believe.
But the consensus is that the volcano is very much alive and a bit more active lately than it has been in the past. Of course, when you talk about the past in the context of volcanoes, you’re really talking about the past.
Scientists say the Yellowstone volcano has erupted three times – 2.1 million years ago, 1.2 million years ago and 640,000 years ago.
I suppose they know this by examining layers of lava or something.
[[In-content Ad]]
Scientists also say that if there was a strong enough earthquake in the vicinity of the magma plume, there could be a cataclysmic eruption within a couple of weeks. What the earthquake would do is unleash that 400-mile-deep magma plume.
Again, this is not something that scientists believe is imminent or even likely, but they continually monitor the huge puddle of molten rock beneath the Yellowstone volcano just in case.
Robert Smith, a professor in the department of geology and geophysics at the University of Utah, has been researching the geodynamics and evolution of the Yellowstone volcano for decades.
He helps operate the Yellowstone seismograph network.
In a 2014 History Channel documentary he talked about the seismographs and the technology designed to detect any change in activity.
In the documentary, he said, “We have seismic vaults with seismographs inside. These send signals along a network and report it back to my computer in Salt Lake City. The seismograph does two things – it records the earthquakes that are active, then they also scan the subsurface we cannot see. We can reconstruct a 3D picture like an MRI scan by recording thousands of earthquakes.”
This mapping system – which has more than 150 seismometers – is how scientists figured out there is a 400-mile magma plume rising from the core of the Earth.
According to Smith’s homepage at the University of Utah website, lots of new research has focused on Yellowstone hotspot geodynamics as well as geophysical imaging of the hotspot and its associated mantle plume. Further work explores the volcanic and tectonic processes driving earthquakes and ground deformation, he notes.
He says 10 new papers since 2007 have employed seismic, GPS and gravity measurements to better understand earthquake processes and related hazards.
Of course, they can’t – and don’t – really predict anything, but one thing is clear: If that magma plume reaches the surface, it would be big trouble. Fortunately, an event like that is not very likely.
The last full-scale eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano, the Lava Creek eruption – that’s the one 640,000 years ago – tossed some 240 cubic miles of rock, dust and volcanic ash into the sky.
That’s some pretty extreme stuff.
If that happened, it would be bad. It could cover half the southwest U.S. with 3 feet of rock, dust and ash. It would damage buildings, shut down power plants and destroy cropland.
In 2014 a group of scientists published a paper, “Modeling ash fall distribution from a Yellowstone supereruption.” They said the volcano was capable of burying states like Wyoming, Montana, Idaho and Colorado in 3 feet of harmful volcanic ash. Places as far away as Chicago could see up to a foot of ash.
That could kill plants and animals, crush roofs and ruin all sorts of electrical equipment:
The good news is that experts at the U.S. Geological Survey say they "see no evidence that another such cataclysmic eruption will occur at Yellowstone in the foreseeable future. Recurrence intervals of these events are neither regular nor predictable."
In 2013, a study by the University of Utah showed that the "size of the magma body beneath Yellowstone is significantly larger than had been thought." But even then, the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory was quick to point out, “Although fascinating, the new findings do not imply increased geologic hazards at Yellowstone, and certainly do not increase the chances of a 'supereruption' in the near future. Contrary to some media reports, Yellowstone is not 'overdue' for a supereruption.”
Nevertheless, some media outlets still like to make an eruption seem imminent.
Some headlines:
“Yellowstone volcano: How scientists ‘intensely monitor’ rising column of HOT MAGMA”
“Yellowstone volcano: Thermometers spike as HOTTEST temperatures on Earth are recorded”
“Yellowstone volcano ERUPTION can trigger chain of aftershocks over ‘THOUSANDS of years'”
“Yellowstone volcano: RISING magma chamber is a likely eruption trigger, scientists warn”
“Yellowstone volcano ERUPTIONS are 'more frequent than previously thought' – SHOCK study”
I love how they use ALL?CAPS for emphasis.
Despite all the hoopla, science writer Robin Andrews at Forbes.com notes the following:
“As it stands, Yellowstone probably can’t even erupt at all at present. In order for that to happen, its huge, two-step magma reservoir has to contain at least 50 percent mobile, molten material. At the moment, it’s at a frankly pathetic 15 percent. An eruption is not about to happen.”
Whew.
Some scientists say that a big eruption might happen in another 200,000 years – give or take 50,000.
I can live with that.
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