I'm glad - for now at least - that there has been a derailment of the Iraqi war train.

But I am by no means satisfied with this whole Iraqi mess.

First of all, I simply don't trust Saddam Hussein. Secondly, I see Kofi Annan, the U.N. secretary general, as more of an Iraqi apologist than a diplomatic hero.

True, he brokered an agreement with Saddam that averted U.S. airstrikes against Iraq. But frankly, the agreement looks like something Saddam wrote.

It certainly doesn't look like something Saddam was forced to sign after losing a war.

The agreement seems conciliatory to Saddam.

The agreement applies to all sites in Iraq, including eight disputed presidential palaces.

But it also says that senior diplomats will be appointed by Annan, in consultation with UNSCOM (U.N. Special Commission), for inspecting the eight palace sites.

This "special group" will operate under established U.N. procedures as well as under "specific, detailed procedures which will be developed given the special nature of the presidential sites, in accordance with the relevant resolutions of the Security Council."

Sounds to me like Annan is making concessions. As far as compliance goes, you could drive a truck through that language.

And former UNSCOM inspectors say that this new agreement basically takes the element of surprise out of the inspection process. By the time all the necessary diplomats are assembled, Saddam will have plenty of time and forewarning to clean up the site. The agreement basically makes the inspection process useless, they say.

Couple that with the fact the Annan, during an interview, referred to UNSCOM inspectors as "cowboys," and it starts sounding like Annan feels sorry for Saddam.

It's important to remember that Saddam already agreed to a more stringent weapons inspection program in 1991 after he lost the Gulf War. He agreed to the "unfettered, unrestricted access" that is at issue now. He also agreed not to manufacture any more "weapons of mass destruction."

Then he chose not to comply - repeatedly.

Here's a brief rundown of Iraqi non-compliance and obstruction as compiled by ABC News.

• June 1991 - Using 100 trucks, Iraq evacuates nuclear equipment from the Fallujah camp outside Baghdad and prevents UNSCOM experts from entering the camp.

• JulyÊ1992 - Saddam provokes a three-week showdown with inspectors by refusing to grant access to the Iraqi agricultural ministry, which the United Nations suspects contains documents on Iraq's banned chemical weapons program.

• January 1993 - Iraqi authorities try to prevent UNSCOM from using its own planes to conduct surveillance.

• June 1993 - Iraqi authorities refuse to allow inspectors to install two surveillance cameras at two missile-testing sites near Baghdad.

• July 1993 - Saddam refused to allow three U.N. inspectors to neutralize testing equipment at two missile sites.

• March 1996 - For the fifth time in a month, Iraqi authorities bar U.N. weapons inspectors from searching a suspected weapons storage building.

• June 1996 - A weeklong standoff between U.N. inspectors and Iraqi officials unfolds outside a facility in Baghdad after Iraq prevents snap inspections of five Republican Guard camps in and around Baghdad.

• June 1997 - Iraq prevents U.N. inspectors from entering two suspected weapons storage sites, the latest in a rash of increasing aggressive incidents that month.

• September 1997 - On three separate occasions Iraq refuses to freeze movement inside a suspected chemical and biological weapons site following the arrival of a team of U.N. inspectors. Inspectors eventually gain entry, but report that documents were moved, removed or destroyed.

• October 1997 - Inspection teams on their way to three sites are stopped and told that the sites are "presidential/residential" and are off limits. A crucial document directly requested by the UNSCOM executive chairman is said to have been accidentally destroyed.

• November 1997 - Teams of U.N. personnel are turned away from inspection sites for four straight days and Saddam demands that all American inspectors leave Iraq. UNSCOM cameras are draped with cloth and equipment is moved out of camera range.

Iraqis have grabbed the control stick of a U.N. helicopter, forcing the pilot to return to base; strong-armed U.N. officials in an attempt to prevent photography of a military site; and flown their own helicopter directly into the path of an oncoming U.N. aircraft.

At one inspection site, an Iraqi anti-aircraft gun began moving as a U.N. helicopter attempted a fly-over, forcing the pilot to land.

And remember, this is a compliance record born out of losing a war.

Anybody who believes Saddam will comply with this new, conciliatory inspection agreement hatched by Annan must also believe in Bigfoot and the Tooth Fairy.

Saddam is no fool.

He knows as long as he can invoke a threat from the West it helps him maintain his grip over Iraq. It also boosts his standing among Arab nations.

Most "experts" agree that it would take a massive military action - a sustained ground attack - to remove Saddam from power.

There is no way President Clinton will commit ground troops to an endeavor like that unless Saddam commits another royal screw up - like invading Kuwait.

That's the only way the U.S. would ever have the international support it needs for an all-out attack on Saddam.

But I think Saddam learned his lesson in Kuwait. He's not likely to try something like that again. I don't think he'll lob any anthrax-laden scuds at Saudi Arabia or Israel, either. He won't give the world an excuse to take him down.

So what will happen?

We will make agreements and Saddam will break them. Saddam will continue with his weapons program and the chess game with the United Nations and the West will continue.

We will infrequently have these little $600 million military buildups in the Persian Gulf and life will go on.

But not forever.

Someday, the Butcher of Baghdad will die. Then maybe things will change in Iraq.

Robert Kagan, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said it best:

"He's like Castro - we can only hope he dies someday. But these guys tend to live a long time." [[In-content Ad]]