NORTH WEBSTER - National Weather Service meteorologists and forecasters have assembled a winter weather awareness publication, available on their Internet site.

The outlook for Indiana during the winter is cautious and balanced: "Equal chances for above or below temperatures across Indiana." The report cites a weak to moderate El Ni-o signal over the central Pacific Ocean.

Sam Lashley, a senior meteorologist at the North Webster station, said it is very difficult to make long-range predictions in Indiana.

"For the whole Midwest, actually," he said. "We get between two strong signals and a lot of things can happen."

With a weak El Ni-o, meaning Pacific Ocean surface waters are about half a degree Centigrade warmer over a four-month period, the Hoosier state is drier than normal. Thursday the outlook for a dry winter was updated from 50 percent to 55 percent. But that doesn't mean temperatures will be warmer or colder than normal.

The bulk of the seven-page document offers facts about winter fatalities (about 70 percent of winter deaths related to ice and snow occur in automobiles) and a number of tips to keep safe and warm when a winter storm hits (stay inside your home, stay inside your vehicle, keep covered and dry if caught outside).

"The automobile deaths can come from carbon monoxide poisoning, freezing to death or from a fatal accident. In the Plains states, people can be stranded for days. That doesn't happen around here very often," Lashley said.

"People run their cars to stay warm and may not realize the exhaust has become blocked. Or they run out of gas and freeze."

Definitions of weather terms, like the difference between advisories and warnings, are provided.

"Generally, people are afraid of tornadoes and severe weather. They don't think about winter conditions as dangerous. We strive to put that information out to remind people these conditions are dangerous, too," Lashley said.

There is a chart showing wind chill factors and the publication includes a wind chill chart that was revised a few years ago.

"The first one originated in the 1960s and there weren't a lot of facts about it," Lashley said. "The new chart was developed in 2001. The scientific community now knows better what can happen."

Frostbite, for example, can occur in five minutes if the temperature is minus 10 degrees F and the wind is blowing 60 miles per hour. This makes the wind chill factor minus 48 degrees F.

Scanners, weather radios and regular radios with a weather band included pick up the North Webster transmitter at WWG45 - 162.5. Lashley said the northern part of Kosciusko County picks up this frequency. Other parts of the county will receive information from the Fort Wayne transmitter - WXJ58 162.55.

"Weather radios are fairly inexpensive now, costing $10 to $15. One can spend upwards of $80 for programmable radios. Because of homeland security, you'll hear them called all hazards radios. Local civil emergencies like hazardous materials spills, train wrecks, evacuations, will be broadcast if the county emergency manager notifies us," Lashley said.

"The ultimate vision is to transmit national emergency information to everyone. New details are just now coming out."

On the Net: www.crh.noaa.gov/ind

www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/publications/winter [[In-content Ad]]