The 7-Up commercial plays, and then it's back to ESPN's halftime show of the Maryland/North Carolina game. I hear what sounds like, "Are you a nun?"

Digger Phelps, the studio analyst, must hear the same thing, because he turns to co-host Larry Beil and asks, "Did he just say, 'Are you a nun?'"

I'm thinking like Digger. I'm scared.

Turns out what the 7-Up people are asking in their commercials - I can't believe these will go over - is not "Are you a nun?" but rather, "Are you an Un?" I guess as in Un-cola. These commercials will surely flop as badly as the beer commercials several years back - I think it was Miller - that said, "It's it, and that's that."

But enough about the commercials. Back to Digger. When you agree with Digger, you are in trouble. Nobody says less with more than Digger.

Yet here Digger is on ESPN's Sunday night selection show, saying, "Watch out for Arkansas" and "Maryland is the team to watch."

I agree. I agree.

To make it to the Sweet 16, all 22-10 Arkansas has to do is beat Siena then beat the winner of the Iowa/Alabama-Birmingham game. Easy street.

And then Maryland. I can give you all these reasons why Maryland is the worst 26-5 team alive. No half-court offense. For each turnover its trapping defense creates, it gives up an open shot. When you sit down and watch Maryland on national TV in big games - against Kentucky, twice against Duke, against North Carolina - the Terps never impress. Senior center Obinna Ekezie is out. Steve Francis disappears for stretches.

Despite all this, like Digger, I like the Terps. If I had to pay a ticket to watch one player in college basketball today, I would choose 6-foot-3 Steve Francis, the man with the 44-inch vertical jump. Like Dick Vitale said during a recent game when Francis blew by his defender, drove the baseline and exploded for a reverse dunk, "Only Michael Jordan can do that."

Then there is the draw. No Connecticut, Duke, Stanford, Kentucky or Utah to stop the Terps. Only one team in their bracket has the potential to stop them - 25-8 St. John's, and if they meet, it wouldn't be until the Sweet 16. Auburn, the No. 1 seed? No chance.

Another No. 1 seed that will go nowhere is 29-4 Michigan State. Mateen Cleaves is not the stud people make him out to be. While the Big Ten sent seven teams to the tournament, if they were ice cream, they would be vanilla. Average at best, save 23-8 Ohio State, if Scoonie Penn is healthy.

The two best first-round games are 20-12 Rhode Island vs. 22-10 North Carolina-Charlotte and 21-10 Villanova vs. 19-12 Mississippi.

Valparaiso, the one team that lasted longer last year than anyone expected, could be the first team out this season. Maryland and 23-8 Valparaiso tip off the tournament at 12:20 p.m. Thursday.

Valpo won't be the only Indiana team to bow out in the first round. Purdue (19-12), which got in despite a 7-9 Big Ten record, will lose to 19-12 Texas, the team formerly coached by Tom Penders, in the first round. Typically Purdue has good regular-season teams that choke in the tournament. This year the Boilerquitters were poor during the regular season, so they are expected to lose.

And 22-10 Indiana, which has lost in the first round three of the last four years, will make it four of five. The Hoosiers will lose to 20-8 George Washington, the team currently coached by Tom Penders, in the first round. George Washington is seeded 11th and Indiana sixth, but trust me, this is no upset. Teams coached by Penders are always dangerous in the postseason.

George Washington is led by 5-foot-4 point guard Shawnta Rogers, who averages 20.1 points, 6.9 assists and 3.6 steals per game. His most impressive statistic may be rebounds: Though 5-4, he grabs 4.0 per game.

Rogers and his GW teammates will chew up and spit Indiana out.

The other Indiana team, 23-9 Evansville, figures to lose to 22-9 Kansas in the first round.

This tournament has Michael Jordan. Jordan plays for 21-5 Penn, wears No. 23 and averages 15.3 points per game.

It has North Carolina-Charlotte perimeter demon Diego Guevara, who blows kisses to his wife after each three-pointer. It has one coach with 800 wins, Jim Phelan, who is 800-442 in 45 years as Mount St. Mary's coach. It has a 62-year-old rookie coach, Tevester Anderson at Murray State, and a 28-year-old player, sophomore George Evans at George Mason. Evans, a Persian Gulf veteran, is called "Pops" by teammates and leads George Mason with 18.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.3 steals, 2.1 assists and 2.5 blocks per game.

It has players named Kris Clack (Texas), Scoonie Penn (Ohio State), Wally Szczerbiak (Miami of Ohio), Hanno Mottola (Utah), Jim Cantamessa (Siena), Bootsy Thornton (St. John's) and Jermel President (College of Charleston). It has a team named the Roadrunners (Texas San Antonio).

It also has the Dick Vitale of coaches, John Kresse, who is 493-120 in 20 years at College of Charleston. No team got jobbed more than Charleston. Charleston went 28-2 during the regular season and has won 25 in a row entering the tournament. In last year's tournament, Charleston led Stanford, a Final Four team, by three points with four minutes to go. Charleston has five senior starters who are 105-15 in four years.

But Charleston was handed a No. 8 seed and a potential second-round meeting with Duke.

Kresse, who makes Vitale look subdued, shouted over the TV set, "C.M. Newton says all you gotta do is win games. Well, we are 28-2."

If Charleston faced nearly any other team besides Duke in the second round, I would have had the Cougars in the Sweet 16. But they're not. Besides, they are making their third straight tournament appearance, so the Cougars in the Sweet 16 would not have been a shock.

Valparaiso was last year's shocker. This year, I'll go with 25-5 Delaware.

Good perimeter-shooting teams pull off upsets, and this is Delaware. The Blue Hens, who start a three-guard lineup, have three players who average between 12 and 22 points. Two players - John Gordon and Kestutis Marciulionis -Êshoot better than 40 percent from three-point range. The Blue Hens hit nearly 75 percent of their free throws.

It says here Delaware beats 20-8 Tennessee in the first round then beats the winner of the Wisconsin/Southwest Missouri State game in the second round. Delaware's season ends with a Sweet 16 loss to Duke.

Gonzaga (25-6) is another sleeper. The Bulldogs, or Zags, shoot 49 percent from the field, 73 percent from the free-throw line and 39 percent from three-point range. Every starter scores between 10 and 14 points per game. Gonzaga will beat 17-10 Minnesota.

Sleepers or no sleepers, no one can beat 32-1 Duke. Like Vitale says, "If Duke brings its A-game, Duke will not get beat," or "I'll take Duke's five starters and give you five other starters from any team in the country, and Duke will still win."

Duke is this good. But Duke has been beaten this year, at the buzzer by Cincinnati, and Duke beat the last tournament team that was supposedly unbeatable. Duke knocked a 34-0 UNLV team out of the tournament in 1991 on a three-point shot.

There are a handful of teams out there that can beat Duke - Maryland, St. John's, Connecticut and Cincinnati - but you just don't see it happening. All these teams have good athletes capable of superb play, but they also have shortcomings.

Duke has Maryland's number, and Chris Carrawell has climbed into Steve Francis' head and shut him down both times during the regular season. The current St. John's team is not tournament tested. Cincinnati, in recent years, is looking more and more like Purdue once the postseason starts. And Connecticut? How many times have people predicted the Huskies would make it to the Final Four, only for them to collapse? Jim Calhoun has never led UConn to the Final Four.

Maryland, Duke, Kentucky and Connecticut will go to the Final Four. Duke will win it all.

One thing you can take to the bank: No team from Indiana will knock off Duke. [[In-content Ad]]