Predicting The Weather Of Politics
July 28, 2016 at 4:25 p.m.
By Gary [email protected]
Somebody remind me not to write about the weather anymore.
Ah, but my political prognostications seem a bit better. Of course, this is not to say that by November things won't change, but right now, I'm looking positively clairvoyant.
Let's recap.[[In-content Ad]]A month ago, when writing about the Demo race between Barack and Hillary, I noted that their battle could wind up helping McCain.
"In the meantime, moderate and independent voters, disillusioned by the chaos and implosion of the Democrat party, will throw up their hands and flock to John McCain."
A couple weeks before that, I wrote this about McCain:
"He's conservative, but he's moderate. That's what voters want. They don't want the fringy stuff on either side of the aisle. That's why, despite McCain's stance on the Iraq war and W's raging unpopularity, McCain is polling dead even with the Demos.
And way back in August 2006, I warned a liberal friend of mine:
"That's where I believe the Demos are screwing up. The party leadership seems to be of the opinion that the whole country thinks like the MoveOn.org crowd and all the liberal bloggers that keep egging them on. The whole country doesn't think like that. Failing to recognize that is a huge political blunder.
OK, so for a long time I've been saying the November election is the Demos' to lose. And it seems to me they are working hard to lose it.
What prompted me to write this is the daily Rasmussen poll that came out Thursday.
All along, McCain has been polling slightly better against Hillary than Barack, but running behind both of them in all the polls.
Even though he's been running behind, it's been within the margin of error - essentially in a dead heat.
But this week, things were different.
Rasmussen had McCain leading Barack 49 percent to 42 percent and leading Hillary 51 percent to 41 percent.
Other interesting tidbits from the poll:
n African-American support for Clinton has collapsed, falling to 55 percent in the general election match-up. Barack, on the other hand, earns solid support from African-American voters but attracts only 36 percent of white voters in a match-up with McCain.
n Over the past month, McCain has gained ground in Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Both Democrats continue to lead in New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and California.
n Barack's favorable ratings are unchanged for the third straight day - 48 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable. McCain was viewed favorably by 53 percent of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 43 percent. For Hillary, those numbers are 43 percent favorable, 55 percent unfavorable.
So what's going on here?
I think a good deal of it has to do with Iraq. The Demos, to their peril, keep talking about pulling troops out and setting up timelines.
I honestly don't think that's all that popular of a position across America.
To be sure, there is a very vocal anti-war constituency, but I don't believe it is as widespread as the Demos like to think.
Meanwhile, while things are not going swimmingly in Iraq, things are improving. The violence is subsiding. That al-Sadr guy has offered up a cease-fire. It seems fractured ethnic groups are starting to work our some compromises.
Certainly, there is more work to be done before Iraq can police itself, but I think voters are starting to see a light at the end of the tunnel.
And I think John McCain is a pretty credible candidate when it comes to Iraq. I love the way the Demos latched onto the comment McCain made about troops being there for a hundred years if need be.
Of course, he wasn't talking about the current force of more than 140,000. He was talking in terms of the numbers of troops that remain in, say, Korea, Germany, Japan or Vietnam.
There probably will always be troops in those countries, just like there there probably always will be troops in Iraq.
To suggest that not a single soldier will be left in Iraq if Barack or Hillary are elected is just plain silly.
I think most Americans understand this. And I also think most Americans can see through the "date certain" and "timeline" strategies put forth by the Demos.
Are Barack and Hillary going to start pulling out troops against the advice of top military advisers - even if it's risky and counter to national security - just to keep their campaign pledges?
So they have crystal balls? How can they know right now what troop levels the situation in Iraq will require in January when they take office?
They can't. And I think most Americans know that. And I also think Americans hate to lose. I think pulling out the troops risks turning the country over to the al-Qaida types and certainly would be viewed by lots of Americans as defeat.
So while Barack and Hillary are beating each other up on the campaign trail over who can get the troops home soonest, McCain is visiting Iraq.
McCain is talking to people in the military, in the Iraq government and in the citizenry. He also visited the leaders of Britain and France on a whirlwind trip.
He's learning. He's collecting information he can use to formulate policy if elected.
Add a crazy Demo preacher (Rev. Jeremiah Wright) and a former Demo vice presidential candidate (Geraldine Ferraro) spewing racially charged comments and McCain's looking absolutely presidential.
And he's got himself a lead in the polls - at least for now.
Somebody remind me not to write about the weather anymore.
Ah, but my political prognostications seem a bit better. Of course, this is not to say that by November things won't change, but right now, I'm looking positively clairvoyant.
Let's recap.[[In-content Ad]]A month ago, when writing about the Demo race between Barack and Hillary, I noted that their battle could wind up helping McCain.
"In the meantime, moderate and independent voters, disillusioned by the chaos and implosion of the Democrat party, will throw up their hands and flock to John McCain."
A couple weeks before that, I wrote this about McCain:
"He's conservative, but he's moderate. That's what voters want. They don't want the fringy stuff on either side of the aisle. That's why, despite McCain's stance on the Iraq war and W's raging unpopularity, McCain is polling dead even with the Demos.
And way back in August 2006, I warned a liberal friend of mine:
"That's where I believe the Demos are screwing up. The party leadership seems to be of the opinion that the whole country thinks like the MoveOn.org crowd and all the liberal bloggers that keep egging them on. The whole country doesn't think like that. Failing to recognize that is a huge political blunder.
OK, so for a long time I've been saying the November election is the Demos' to lose. And it seems to me they are working hard to lose it.
What prompted me to write this is the daily Rasmussen poll that came out Thursday.
All along, McCain has been polling slightly better against Hillary than Barack, but running behind both of them in all the polls.
Even though he's been running behind, it's been within the margin of error - essentially in a dead heat.
But this week, things were different.
Rasmussen had McCain leading Barack 49 percent to 42 percent and leading Hillary 51 percent to 41 percent.
Other interesting tidbits from the poll:
n African-American support for Clinton has collapsed, falling to 55 percent in the general election match-up. Barack, on the other hand, earns solid support from African-American voters but attracts only 36 percent of white voters in a match-up with McCain.
n Over the past month, McCain has gained ground in Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Both Democrats continue to lead in New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and California.
n Barack's favorable ratings are unchanged for the third straight day - 48 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable. McCain was viewed favorably by 53 percent of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 43 percent. For Hillary, those numbers are 43 percent favorable, 55 percent unfavorable.
So what's going on here?
I think a good deal of it has to do with Iraq. The Demos, to their peril, keep talking about pulling troops out and setting up timelines.
I honestly don't think that's all that popular of a position across America.
To be sure, there is a very vocal anti-war constituency, but I don't believe it is as widespread as the Demos like to think.
Meanwhile, while things are not going swimmingly in Iraq, things are improving. The violence is subsiding. That al-Sadr guy has offered up a cease-fire. It seems fractured ethnic groups are starting to work our some compromises.
Certainly, there is more work to be done before Iraq can police itself, but I think voters are starting to see a light at the end of the tunnel.
And I think John McCain is a pretty credible candidate when it comes to Iraq. I love the way the Demos latched onto the comment McCain made about troops being there for a hundred years if need be.
Of course, he wasn't talking about the current force of more than 140,000. He was talking in terms of the numbers of troops that remain in, say, Korea, Germany, Japan or Vietnam.
There probably will always be troops in those countries, just like there there probably always will be troops in Iraq.
To suggest that not a single soldier will be left in Iraq if Barack or Hillary are elected is just plain silly.
I think most Americans understand this. And I also think most Americans can see through the "date certain" and "timeline" strategies put forth by the Demos.
Are Barack and Hillary going to start pulling out troops against the advice of top military advisers - even if it's risky and counter to national security - just to keep their campaign pledges?
So they have crystal balls? How can they know right now what troop levels the situation in Iraq will require in January when they take office?
They can't. And I think most Americans know that. And I also think Americans hate to lose. I think pulling out the troops risks turning the country over to the al-Qaida types and certainly would be viewed by lots of Americans as defeat.
So while Barack and Hillary are beating each other up on the campaign trail over who can get the troops home soonest, McCain is visiting Iraq.
McCain is talking to people in the military, in the Iraq government and in the citizenry. He also visited the leaders of Britain and France on a whirlwind trip.
He's learning. He's collecting information he can use to formulate policy if elected.
Add a crazy Demo preacher (Rev. Jeremiah Wright) and a former Demo vice presidential candidate (Geraldine Ferraro) spewing racially charged comments and McCain's looking absolutely presidential.
And he's got himself a lead in the polls - at least for now.
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