Everyone, Now: Will Maris' Record Fall?
July 28, 2016 at 4:25 p.m.
OK, let's get this one out of the way: Will anyone hit 62 home runs to pass Roger Maris' record of 61 in 1961?
Yes, it will happen. The only question left is, when?
1998 seems as good as any. Maris hit 61 in an expansion year. 1998 is an expansion year. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay Devil Rays start play this year.
Some records are untouchable: Cy Young's 511 wins and Cal Ripken's 2,478 consecutive-games played (and counting) are two that come to mind.
Sixty-one home runs is not untouchable. Too many players have threatened deep into the season. Cincinnati's George Foster hit 52 home runs in 1977. The next player to reach 50? That happened 13 years later, Cecil Fielder with 51 in 1990.
Now it's nothing for guys to hit 45 or 50 home runs.
Two players are always popular candidates in the will-anyone-break-Roger Maris'-record poll: Seattle center fielder Ken Griffey Jr. and St. Louis first baseman Mark McGwire.
McGwire hit 58 in 1997 and 52 in 1996. Griffey hit 56 in 1997 and 49 in 1996.
Those are the top two, but I'll throw in a third Texas right fielder/ designated hitter Juan Gonzalez.
I'm throwing out McGwire in 1998. I think he could do it; I just don't think it will be in 1998.
History tells us McGwire has a history of injuries -Êelbow, back, heel, you name it. You say McGwire had 540 at-bats in 1997. But he had only 423 in 1996 and 317 in 1995. The injuries are due to crop up again. But hey, he hit 52 in 423 at-bats in 1996, so maybe all he needs are 450 or 500 to get the job done.
Like McGwire, Juan Gonzalez knows injuries. But Gonzalez has put together back-to-back healthy years, hitting 47 homers in 541 at-bats in '96 and 42 homers in 533 at-bats in '97.
You could make the argument Gonzalez is the most underrated player around. We hear about Frank Thomas, Ken Griffey, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza, Barry Bonds and Mo Vaughn. How often do people include Juan Gonzalez in that list of superstars?
He and Griffey are 28, and their power numbers aren't that far off. Gonzalez has 256 homers and 790 RBIs in 3,663 career at-bats; Griffey has 294 homers and 872 RBIs in 4,593 career at-bats.
But with the likes of Rusty Greer and Will Clark batting around him, I think pitchers will pick out Gonzalez as the guy to pitch around in the Texas lineup. Greer and Clark are gamers, but do they scare you? No.
Gonzalez does.
If anybody does it in '98, it will be Griffey.
Seattle's lineup is full of good hitters (Alex Rodriguez, Jay Buhner, Edgar Martinez, David Segui and so on), so pitchers will have to pitch to Griffey. Rodriguez, Buhner and Martinez can each hit 30 homers.
Griffey plays in the right kind of park -Êa small, hitter friendly one.
He is media savvy, so his hair won't fall out like Maris' did. He can handle the crush.
Credit ESPN The Magazine for this one: the Jeff Huson factor. Huson played for the Texas Rangers when Nolan Ryan won No. 300; he played for the Baltimore Orioles when Ripken broke Lou Gehrig's record. Huson plays for the Mariners; Griffey breaks the record.
But here's the biggest reason why Griffey could do it: He hit 56 homers last year. He had one 29-game stretch around July where he hit one -Êthat's right, one -Êhomer.
Granted, a 162-game season takes a toll. But another 29-game, one homer stretch? No way, no how.
That's why Griffey will do it. If not this year, then on down the road. Same with McGwire, and maybe even Gonzalez.
It's only a matter of when.
1998 BASEBALL PREDICTIONS
1997 records in parentheses
AL East
1. New York Yankees (96-66, second) - Yeah, the Orioles went wire to wire last year, but the Yankees finished only two games out. Now the Yankees added Chuck Knoblauch, one of the top two second basemen in the game.
2. Baltimore Orioles (98-64, first) - Finding a closer to replace Randall Kirk Myers and his 45 saves in 46 chances is not the problem here. Young flamethrowers Armando Benitez and Arthur Lee Rhodes can close games just fine, and Randall K won't pull another 45 of 46 anyway. Finding enough effective middle relievers to bridge the gap from starters to closer (Rhodes and Benitez served in this role last year) will be the problem.
3. Toronto Blue Jays (76-86, fifth) -ÊFirst-year manager Tim Johnson says his pitching staff (closers and relievers), which has the likes of Roger Clemens, Pat Hentgen, Randy Myers and Kelvim Escobar, is as good as any in the game. He's probably right. Pitching won't be a worry. Scoring runs will be.
4. Boston Red Sox (78-84, fourth) - The Red Sox could probably win two other divisions. Problem is, the AL East isn't one of them. But the Red Sox, with much improved pitching and an already solid lineup, will finish over .500. If there is a team that could surprise, this is it.
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays (first year) - The GM here is Chuck LaMar, the same Chuck LaMar who helped turn the Atlanta Braves around from being one of the worst in the '80s to one of the best in the '90s.
AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians (86-75, first) - Kenny Lofton. Shawon Dunston. David Justice. Manny Ramirez. Jim Thome. Geronimo Berroa. Travis Fryman. Sandy Alomar. Omar Vizquel. If you're a pitcher facing Cleveland, where's the easy out? Who do you pitch to? Getting people out will be Cleveland's only trouble. Doc Gooden is considered a No. 2 starter. Then they have guys named Bartolo Colon and Steve Karsay in the starting rotation.
2. Chicago White Sox (80-81, second) -ÊHey, they got rid of the always effervescent Terry Bevington. That's good for eight wins alone. And you can put that on the board.
3. Detroit Tigers (79-83, third) -ÊLike everyone else says, this is a future powerhouse. The future isn't 1998. At least I don't think so. Look out in 1999.
4. Minnesota Twins (68-94, fourth) - Minnesota's rotation is as good as it's been since the early '90s, and the Twins have several line-drive, gap hitters. Pretty soon we may have to quit calling them the Twinkies.
5. Kansas City Royals (67-94, fifth) - Pitcher Kevin Appier falls off porch and hurts arm; Royals fall into basement.
AL West
1. Anaheim Angels (84-78, second) - Yes, that's Anaheim, not Seattle, which is the trendy pick. Black Jack McDowell, based on spring training, looks like he's back. White Sox fans remember Black Jack in his glory days with their team, when he was their ace. Imagine that ace -Êa former 22-game winner - as a No. 5 starter. That's what he is with Anaheim. Teams could do worse. Much worse.
2. Seattle Mariners (90-72, first) - Mariners blew 26 saves last year, and same bullpen returns, minus Norm Charlton. Fourth and fifth starters to start season are Bill Swift and Felipe Lira. If only Griffey Junior could pitch. Here comes Texas.
3. Texas Rangers (77-85, third) - The Rangers will have a good defense and five solid starting pitchers. But there's not much disparity between No. 1 (John Burkett) and No. 5 (Bobby Witt or Rick Helling). Still, the Rangers, along with the Red Sox, are sleepers in the AL.
4. Oakland Athletics (65-97, fourth) -ÊOutfielder Ben Grieve will electrify the crowd. Too bad he's all the A's have going for them.
NL East
1. Atlanta Braves (101-61, first) - Is there anybody else in this division?
2. New York Mets (88-74, third) -ÊMets won 88 games last year. The only reason they're second is because everyone else stinks.
3. Montreal Expos (78-84, fourth) - Give Felipe Alou a plumber and garbage man, and he'll find a way to win with them. All the Expos do is lose big-time players; all they do is keep overachieving.
4. Philadelphia Phillies (68-94, fifth) - Still too young. Still improving.
5. Florida Marlins (92-70, second) -ÊFrom World Series champion to last in the division. Kevin Brown. Gone. Robb Nen. Gone. Moises Alou. Gone. Jeff Conine. Gone. Florida Marlins. Going, going, gone.
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs (68-94, fifth) -ÊIn Sunday's Chicago Tribune, Mark Grace told Hall of Fame writer Jerome Holtzman to put down that the Cubs will win their division. I believe him - it is, as a guy in our newsroom said, a "competitively weak" division. Cubs have good starting pitching, a solid bullpen and an explosive offense.
2. St. Louis Cardinals (73-89) - A Tony LaRussa team won't go 73-89 two years in a row. No way. Still, Kent Mercker, a No. 3 starter? Trust me. You don't win divisions with Kent Mercker as your No. 3 starter. Besides, isn't Mark McGwire due to miss 53 games?
3. Milwaukee Brewers (78-83, third) - The Brewers can hit, but it won't be enough. And Doug Jones as your closer? Hah! So a 40-year-old guy who looks like a walrus got a little lucky with his 63 mph changeup last year and saved 36 games. He'll get roughed up this year. The last time he put two good seasons together? 1989-1990. In 1995 and 1996, his ERA was above 5.00.
4. Houston Astros (84-78, first) - Quick. Who won the NL Central last year? You got it. Houston Astros, under the guidance of first-year manager Larry Dierker, who went from the television booth to the dugout. Astros have two good starters in Shane Reynolds and Mike Hampton, but after that, they have to find three guys who can prove they can get the job done.
5. Cincinnati Reds (76-86, third) - Reds GM Jim Bowden is as good as they come when it comes to picking up talent off the waiver wire. This year's gem will be starter Pete Harnisch, the former New York Met who was out with depression last year. He's a bulldog with good stuff. Like the Expos, the Reds always find a way to do better than people expect them to. Had they had Jack McKeon as manager all last year - remember Ray Knight? - they would have won the division.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (79-83, second) -ÊThis was the popular team to root for last year - the gritty, gutty upstarts, the underdog. With a $9 million pay roll ($1 million less than Albert Belle alone), they won 79 games when they were expected to win 54. They finished second in the division. No surprises this year.
NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (88-74, second) - L.A.'s starting five - Chan Ho Park, Ramon Martinez, Ismael Valdes, Hideo Nomo and Darren Dreifort -Êis better than 28 other teams. Only Atlanta is given the edge, a slight edge. But the Dodgers' lineup is head and shoulders above Atlanta's. Dodgers also have a good bullpen. Just a good team, period.
2. San Diego Padres (76-86, fourth) - Two years ago, Pads won their division. Last year, they slipped to 10 games under .500. Their pitching, led by Kevin Brown and his 95 mph forkball, is too good to let that happen again. Pads win the wild card and maybe give Dodgers a run for the division title.
3. Colorado Rockies (83-79, third) -ÊThe good news: Rockies think this is the year they finally have the pitching. Darryl Kile, who went 19-7 with a 2.57 ERA for Houston, is here. Will also get a full season out of Pedro Astacio, who won 12 games for the Dodgers and Rockies. The bad news: Astacio and Kile had ERA's way over 6.00 in spring training. And they aren't even in Denver yet. Yikes.
4. San Francisco Giants (90-72, first) -ÊAlong with the Mets and the Pirates, another feel-good team last year. Picked last by most preseason publications, all the Giants did was win 90 games and win the division. Giants are counting on Danny Darwin and Orel Hershiser to fill out the rotation. In 1988, this would have been good news. Too bad it's 1998.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (first year) - Manager Buck Showalter is a class act. So is owner Jerry Colangelo. In three years, with the way Colangelo will spend money on players, this team may be the class of the NL West.
AL Wild card -ÊBaltimore Orioles
AL Champion -ÊBaltimore Orioles
NL Wild card - San Diego Padres
NL Champion -ÊLos Angeles Dodgers
World Series -ÊL.A. over Baltimore
AL MVP - Ken Griffey Jr., Mariners
AL Cy Young -ÊPedro Martinez, Red Sox
AL Rookie of the Year - Ben Grieve, Athletics
AL Manager of the Year -ÊJohnny Oates, Rangers
NL MVP - Mike Piazza, Dodgers
NL Cy Young - Kevin Brown, Padres
NL Rookie of the Year - Todd Helton, Rockies
NL Manager of the Year -ÊJim Riggleman, Cubs [[In-content Ad]]
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OK, let's get this one out of the way: Will anyone hit 62 home runs to pass Roger Maris' record of 61 in 1961?
Yes, it will happen. The only question left is, when?
1998 seems as good as any. Maris hit 61 in an expansion year. 1998 is an expansion year. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay Devil Rays start play this year.
Some records are untouchable: Cy Young's 511 wins and Cal Ripken's 2,478 consecutive-games played (and counting) are two that come to mind.
Sixty-one home runs is not untouchable. Too many players have threatened deep into the season. Cincinnati's George Foster hit 52 home runs in 1977. The next player to reach 50? That happened 13 years later, Cecil Fielder with 51 in 1990.
Now it's nothing for guys to hit 45 or 50 home runs.
Two players are always popular candidates in the will-anyone-break-Roger Maris'-record poll: Seattle center fielder Ken Griffey Jr. and St. Louis first baseman Mark McGwire.
McGwire hit 58 in 1997 and 52 in 1996. Griffey hit 56 in 1997 and 49 in 1996.
Those are the top two, but I'll throw in a third Texas right fielder/ designated hitter Juan Gonzalez.
I'm throwing out McGwire in 1998. I think he could do it; I just don't think it will be in 1998.
History tells us McGwire has a history of injuries -Êelbow, back, heel, you name it. You say McGwire had 540 at-bats in 1997. But he had only 423 in 1996 and 317 in 1995. The injuries are due to crop up again. But hey, he hit 52 in 423 at-bats in 1996, so maybe all he needs are 450 or 500 to get the job done.
Like McGwire, Juan Gonzalez knows injuries. But Gonzalez has put together back-to-back healthy years, hitting 47 homers in 541 at-bats in '96 and 42 homers in 533 at-bats in '97.
You could make the argument Gonzalez is the most underrated player around. We hear about Frank Thomas, Ken Griffey, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza, Barry Bonds and Mo Vaughn. How often do people include Juan Gonzalez in that list of superstars?
He and Griffey are 28, and their power numbers aren't that far off. Gonzalez has 256 homers and 790 RBIs in 3,663 career at-bats; Griffey has 294 homers and 872 RBIs in 4,593 career at-bats.
But with the likes of Rusty Greer and Will Clark batting around him, I think pitchers will pick out Gonzalez as the guy to pitch around in the Texas lineup. Greer and Clark are gamers, but do they scare you? No.
Gonzalez does.
If anybody does it in '98, it will be Griffey.
Seattle's lineup is full of good hitters (Alex Rodriguez, Jay Buhner, Edgar Martinez, David Segui and so on), so pitchers will have to pitch to Griffey. Rodriguez, Buhner and Martinez can each hit 30 homers.
Griffey plays in the right kind of park -Êa small, hitter friendly one.
He is media savvy, so his hair won't fall out like Maris' did. He can handle the crush.
Credit ESPN The Magazine for this one: the Jeff Huson factor. Huson played for the Texas Rangers when Nolan Ryan won No. 300; he played for the Baltimore Orioles when Ripken broke Lou Gehrig's record. Huson plays for the Mariners; Griffey breaks the record.
But here's the biggest reason why Griffey could do it: He hit 56 homers last year. He had one 29-game stretch around July where he hit one -Êthat's right, one -Êhomer.
Granted, a 162-game season takes a toll. But another 29-game, one homer stretch? No way, no how.
That's why Griffey will do it. If not this year, then on down the road. Same with McGwire, and maybe even Gonzalez.
It's only a matter of when.
1998 BASEBALL PREDICTIONS
1997 records in parentheses
AL East
1. New York Yankees (96-66, second) - Yeah, the Orioles went wire to wire last year, but the Yankees finished only two games out. Now the Yankees added Chuck Knoblauch, one of the top two second basemen in the game.
2. Baltimore Orioles (98-64, first) - Finding a closer to replace Randall Kirk Myers and his 45 saves in 46 chances is not the problem here. Young flamethrowers Armando Benitez and Arthur Lee Rhodes can close games just fine, and Randall K won't pull another 45 of 46 anyway. Finding enough effective middle relievers to bridge the gap from starters to closer (Rhodes and Benitez served in this role last year) will be the problem.
3. Toronto Blue Jays (76-86, fifth) -ÊFirst-year manager Tim Johnson says his pitching staff (closers and relievers), which has the likes of Roger Clemens, Pat Hentgen, Randy Myers and Kelvim Escobar, is as good as any in the game. He's probably right. Pitching won't be a worry. Scoring runs will be.
4. Boston Red Sox (78-84, fourth) - The Red Sox could probably win two other divisions. Problem is, the AL East isn't one of them. But the Red Sox, with much improved pitching and an already solid lineup, will finish over .500. If there is a team that could surprise, this is it.
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays (first year) - The GM here is Chuck LaMar, the same Chuck LaMar who helped turn the Atlanta Braves around from being one of the worst in the '80s to one of the best in the '90s.
AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians (86-75, first) - Kenny Lofton. Shawon Dunston. David Justice. Manny Ramirez. Jim Thome. Geronimo Berroa. Travis Fryman. Sandy Alomar. Omar Vizquel. If you're a pitcher facing Cleveland, where's the easy out? Who do you pitch to? Getting people out will be Cleveland's only trouble. Doc Gooden is considered a No. 2 starter. Then they have guys named Bartolo Colon and Steve Karsay in the starting rotation.
2. Chicago White Sox (80-81, second) -ÊHey, they got rid of the always effervescent Terry Bevington. That's good for eight wins alone. And you can put that on the board.
3. Detroit Tigers (79-83, third) -ÊLike everyone else says, this is a future powerhouse. The future isn't 1998. At least I don't think so. Look out in 1999.
4. Minnesota Twins (68-94, fourth) - Minnesota's rotation is as good as it's been since the early '90s, and the Twins have several line-drive, gap hitters. Pretty soon we may have to quit calling them the Twinkies.
5. Kansas City Royals (67-94, fifth) - Pitcher Kevin Appier falls off porch and hurts arm; Royals fall into basement.
AL West
1. Anaheim Angels (84-78, second) - Yes, that's Anaheim, not Seattle, which is the trendy pick. Black Jack McDowell, based on spring training, looks like he's back. White Sox fans remember Black Jack in his glory days with their team, when he was their ace. Imagine that ace -Êa former 22-game winner - as a No. 5 starter. That's what he is with Anaheim. Teams could do worse. Much worse.
2. Seattle Mariners (90-72, first) - Mariners blew 26 saves last year, and same bullpen returns, minus Norm Charlton. Fourth and fifth starters to start season are Bill Swift and Felipe Lira. If only Griffey Junior could pitch. Here comes Texas.
3. Texas Rangers (77-85, third) - The Rangers will have a good defense and five solid starting pitchers. But there's not much disparity between No. 1 (John Burkett) and No. 5 (Bobby Witt or Rick Helling). Still, the Rangers, along with the Red Sox, are sleepers in the AL.
4. Oakland Athletics (65-97, fourth) -ÊOutfielder Ben Grieve will electrify the crowd. Too bad he's all the A's have going for them.
NL East
1. Atlanta Braves (101-61, first) - Is there anybody else in this division?
2. New York Mets (88-74, third) -ÊMets won 88 games last year. The only reason they're second is because everyone else stinks.
3. Montreal Expos (78-84, fourth) - Give Felipe Alou a plumber and garbage man, and he'll find a way to win with them. All the Expos do is lose big-time players; all they do is keep overachieving.
4. Philadelphia Phillies (68-94, fifth) - Still too young. Still improving.
5. Florida Marlins (92-70, second) -ÊFrom World Series champion to last in the division. Kevin Brown. Gone. Robb Nen. Gone. Moises Alou. Gone. Jeff Conine. Gone. Florida Marlins. Going, going, gone.
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs (68-94, fifth) -ÊIn Sunday's Chicago Tribune, Mark Grace told Hall of Fame writer Jerome Holtzman to put down that the Cubs will win their division. I believe him - it is, as a guy in our newsroom said, a "competitively weak" division. Cubs have good starting pitching, a solid bullpen and an explosive offense.
2. St. Louis Cardinals (73-89) - A Tony LaRussa team won't go 73-89 two years in a row. No way. Still, Kent Mercker, a No. 3 starter? Trust me. You don't win divisions with Kent Mercker as your No. 3 starter. Besides, isn't Mark McGwire due to miss 53 games?
3. Milwaukee Brewers (78-83, third) - The Brewers can hit, but it won't be enough. And Doug Jones as your closer? Hah! So a 40-year-old guy who looks like a walrus got a little lucky with his 63 mph changeup last year and saved 36 games. He'll get roughed up this year. The last time he put two good seasons together? 1989-1990. In 1995 and 1996, his ERA was above 5.00.
4. Houston Astros (84-78, first) - Quick. Who won the NL Central last year? You got it. Houston Astros, under the guidance of first-year manager Larry Dierker, who went from the television booth to the dugout. Astros have two good starters in Shane Reynolds and Mike Hampton, but after that, they have to find three guys who can prove they can get the job done.
5. Cincinnati Reds (76-86, third) - Reds GM Jim Bowden is as good as they come when it comes to picking up talent off the waiver wire. This year's gem will be starter Pete Harnisch, the former New York Met who was out with depression last year. He's a bulldog with good stuff. Like the Expos, the Reds always find a way to do better than people expect them to. Had they had Jack McKeon as manager all last year - remember Ray Knight? - they would have won the division.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (79-83, second) -ÊThis was the popular team to root for last year - the gritty, gutty upstarts, the underdog. With a $9 million pay roll ($1 million less than Albert Belle alone), they won 79 games when they were expected to win 54. They finished second in the division. No surprises this year.
NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (88-74, second) - L.A.'s starting five - Chan Ho Park, Ramon Martinez, Ismael Valdes, Hideo Nomo and Darren Dreifort -Êis better than 28 other teams. Only Atlanta is given the edge, a slight edge. But the Dodgers' lineup is head and shoulders above Atlanta's. Dodgers also have a good bullpen. Just a good team, period.
2. San Diego Padres (76-86, fourth) - Two years ago, Pads won their division. Last year, they slipped to 10 games under .500. Their pitching, led by Kevin Brown and his 95 mph forkball, is too good to let that happen again. Pads win the wild card and maybe give Dodgers a run for the division title.
3. Colorado Rockies (83-79, third) -ÊThe good news: Rockies think this is the year they finally have the pitching. Darryl Kile, who went 19-7 with a 2.57 ERA for Houston, is here. Will also get a full season out of Pedro Astacio, who won 12 games for the Dodgers and Rockies. The bad news: Astacio and Kile had ERA's way over 6.00 in spring training. And they aren't even in Denver yet. Yikes.
4. San Francisco Giants (90-72, first) -ÊAlong with the Mets and the Pirates, another feel-good team last year. Picked last by most preseason publications, all the Giants did was win 90 games and win the division. Giants are counting on Danny Darwin and Orel Hershiser to fill out the rotation. In 1988, this would have been good news. Too bad it's 1998.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (first year) - Manager Buck Showalter is a class act. So is owner Jerry Colangelo. In three years, with the way Colangelo will spend money on players, this team may be the class of the NL West.
AL Wild card -ÊBaltimore Orioles
AL Champion -ÊBaltimore Orioles
NL Wild card - San Diego Padres
NL Champion -ÊLos Angeles Dodgers
World Series -ÊL.A. over Baltimore
AL MVP - Ken Griffey Jr., Mariners
AL Cy Young -ÊPedro Martinez, Red Sox
AL Rookie of the Year - Ben Grieve, Athletics
AL Manager of the Year -ÊJohnny Oates, Rangers
NL MVP - Mike Piazza, Dodgers
NL Cy Young - Kevin Brown, Padres
NL Rookie of the Year - Todd Helton, Rockies
NL Manager of the Year -ÊJim Riggleman, Cubs [[In-content Ad]]