Economic Image Not Reality
July 28, 2016 at 4:25 p.m.
I noticed John Kerry stopped talking about jobs.
Maybe that's because the economy added 308,000 jobs in March.
Retail sales in March, that had expected to be flat, rose 1.8 percent, the highest since March 2003.
Economic indicators are positive enough that economists are predicting gross domestic product growth of at least 4.5 percent in the first six months of this year.
I must admit that I am cautiously optimistic about the economy, but the whole thing could stall because of spiraling gasoline prices.
Only time will tell, I suppose.
What I have been noticing is that if you watch CNN and the major networks very much, that's not the picture you get - at all.
It's almost bizarre. You get this overwhelmingly ominous sense of looming economic disaster.
I want to tell them, "Lighten up guys, it's just not that bad."
It's funny, because hour after hour they tell us how tenuous things are in the economy, then they do a poll on consumer confidence.
I feel like the CNN anchor should say something like this: "New numbers on consumer confidence today seem to show that only about 34 percent of you were watching our gloom and doom economic reporting. The rest of you were out spending money. What's wrong with you people?!"
So amid the mostly positive economic developments of late, along comes John Kerry with a new, improved version of the Misery Index.
He had to stop ranting about jobs and outsourcing because of the jobs numbers so I know he and his campaign advisers were freaking out.
What can they say? The economy is creating - gasp! - jobs again.
How can they beat up on W's economic policies if the economy is fairly robust.
Hmmmm.
Well, they could always resurrect the Misery Index that was a mainstay of Jimmy Carter's successful presidential campaign.
Back in 1976 Carter used the Misery Index to bludgeon Gerald Ford.
Some of you may remember. The old Misery Index is the inflation rate, plus the unemployment rate.
In 1976, the Misery Index was 13.5, which, according to Carter, was way too high. OK, I'll buy that. That was pretty high.
But the whole idea came back around and smacked Carter square in the forehead when, after four years under his tutelage, the misery index stood at 20.6.
That same index now would be somewhere around 7.5.
Well that certainly isn't very dramatic, so Kerry came up with a Middle Class Misery Index.
His new, improved index includes all kinds of stuff - median family income, college tuition, home ownership, health insurance costs, personal bankruptcies, job growth, and others.
Basically, I think somebody instructed his policy wonks to search economic and demographic data and glean out anything that might remotely make W look bad.
This new, convoluted, misery index dropped 13 points from 112 to 99 so far during the W administration.
Don't be confused. You see, that's a bad thing. Under the perverted Kerry index, the higher the number, the lower the misery.
At least the old Misery Index, contrived as it was, had the value of being straightforward and easy to understand.
Kerry's index is, frankly, meaningless drivel.
Nonetheless, Kerry needs to be careful. If the economy continues to improve, his own Middle Class Misery Index could come back to haunt him.
But then again, who cares? He'll just stop talking about it. Just like he stopped talking about jobs.
I was listening to CNN's Crossfire the other day.
Robert Novak was pointing out to Paul Begala that there really was quite a bit of positive economic information out there these days.
Begala was arguing - unconvincingly in my view - to the contrary
The two of them went tit for tat for a while and then Begala lashed out with this gem:
"If you think the economy is good, vote for George Bush ..."
OK, Paul. Sounds like good advice. [[In-content Ad]]
Latest News
E-Editions
I noticed John Kerry stopped talking about jobs.
Maybe that's because the economy added 308,000 jobs in March.
Retail sales in March, that had expected to be flat, rose 1.8 percent, the highest since March 2003.
Economic indicators are positive enough that economists are predicting gross domestic product growth of at least 4.5 percent in the first six months of this year.
I must admit that I am cautiously optimistic about the economy, but the whole thing could stall because of spiraling gasoline prices.
Only time will tell, I suppose.
What I have been noticing is that if you watch CNN and the major networks very much, that's not the picture you get - at all.
It's almost bizarre. You get this overwhelmingly ominous sense of looming economic disaster.
I want to tell them, "Lighten up guys, it's just not that bad."
It's funny, because hour after hour they tell us how tenuous things are in the economy, then they do a poll on consumer confidence.
I feel like the CNN anchor should say something like this: "New numbers on consumer confidence today seem to show that only about 34 percent of you were watching our gloom and doom economic reporting. The rest of you were out spending money. What's wrong with you people?!"
So amid the mostly positive economic developments of late, along comes John Kerry with a new, improved version of the Misery Index.
He had to stop ranting about jobs and outsourcing because of the jobs numbers so I know he and his campaign advisers were freaking out.
What can they say? The economy is creating - gasp! - jobs again.
How can they beat up on W's economic policies if the economy is fairly robust.
Hmmmm.
Well, they could always resurrect the Misery Index that was a mainstay of Jimmy Carter's successful presidential campaign.
Back in 1976 Carter used the Misery Index to bludgeon Gerald Ford.
Some of you may remember. The old Misery Index is the inflation rate, plus the unemployment rate.
In 1976, the Misery Index was 13.5, which, according to Carter, was way too high. OK, I'll buy that. That was pretty high.
But the whole idea came back around and smacked Carter square in the forehead when, after four years under his tutelage, the misery index stood at 20.6.
That same index now would be somewhere around 7.5.
Well that certainly isn't very dramatic, so Kerry came up with a Middle Class Misery Index.
His new, improved index includes all kinds of stuff - median family income, college tuition, home ownership, health insurance costs, personal bankruptcies, job growth, and others.
Basically, I think somebody instructed his policy wonks to search economic and demographic data and glean out anything that might remotely make W look bad.
This new, convoluted, misery index dropped 13 points from 112 to 99 so far during the W administration.
Don't be confused. You see, that's a bad thing. Under the perverted Kerry index, the higher the number, the lower the misery.
At least the old Misery Index, contrived as it was, had the value of being straightforward and easy to understand.
Kerry's index is, frankly, meaningless drivel.
Nonetheless, Kerry needs to be careful. If the economy continues to improve, his own Middle Class Misery Index could come back to haunt him.
But then again, who cares? He'll just stop talking about it. Just like he stopped talking about jobs.
I was listening to CNN's Crossfire the other day.
Robert Novak was pointing out to Paul Begala that there really was quite a bit of positive economic information out there these days.
Begala was arguing - unconvincingly in my view - to the contrary
The two of them went tit for tat for a while and then Begala lashed out with this gem:
"If you think the economy is good, vote for George Bush ..."
OK, Paul. Sounds like good advice. [[In-content Ad]]