Demographic Expert Sees Stable School Population
July 28, 2016 at 4:25 p.m.
Warsaw Community Schools may be in the enviable position of having a stable school population if a demographic expert's predictions come true.
Jerome N. McKibben, Ph.D., of Gann-McKibben Demographic Consulting, told the school board Monday that the school corporation, in the next 10 to 15 years, should see just enough students coming into Warsaw schools to offset the students leaving the system.
"It's an enviable position for a school system to be in," he said, emphasizing that there are no drastic increases or reductions expected.
McKibben, who began the demographic study of the school district last April, said the Warsaw area experienced brisk growth in the 1980s. That growth, which was above the state and national averages, no longer exists, and the district is gradually aging, he said.
There will be a dramatic increase in the median age in the school district, he said, from 31.2 years old in 1990 to 35.7 years old in 2005.
He also said people moving into the school district tend to be 25 to 40 years old, and those moving out are in the 18 to 24 age group.
"This is the curse of a successful school system - children graduate and go to college and they don't come back," he said.
He predicted that, in general, elementary school attendance would peak around 2003 to 2005, then attendance would decline slightly. "Basically, you're going to be in a holding pattern," he said.
He said he expects the elementary enrollment district-wide to drop by about 200 students over the next 10 years.
The current enrollment, according to school superintendent Dr. Lee Harman, as of Monday was 6,295 students, compared to 6,354 at this time last year.
Population growth in general is down nationwide, McKibben said, and that has an impact on most school systems.
"The bottom line - you're going to have just enough inflow to offset the outflow," he said.
While that might mean WCS won't see a huge increase or decrease in the number of students, he said, it does mean the district will be able to count on an enviable amount of stability for at least the next 10 years, he said.
In other business, the board approved receiving funds from the state through electronic transfer, and approved re-funding the $2.5 million bond for Warsaw Community High School at current interest rates.
While the bond cannot be refinanced until 2000, the interest rate can be locked in now, said Rande Thorpe, WCS business manager. The refinancing will save the corporation approximately $800,000, he said.
The board also gave transportation manager Della Swain permission to advertise for bids to replace five 55-passenger buses and one 84-passenger bus.
Warsaw's school board received a plaque from the Indiana School Board Association naming it an outstanding school board in Indiana for 1997-98 based on the attendance of the school board members.
The board will meet next at 7 p.m. Dec. 8 in the administration building. [[In-content Ad]]
Warsaw Community Schools may be in the enviable position of having a stable school population if a demographic expert's predictions come true.
Jerome N. McKibben, Ph.D., of Gann-McKibben Demographic Consulting, told the school board Monday that the school corporation, in the next 10 to 15 years, should see just enough students coming into Warsaw schools to offset the students leaving the system.
"It's an enviable position for a school system to be in," he said, emphasizing that there are no drastic increases or reductions expected.
McKibben, who began the demographic study of the school district last April, said the Warsaw area experienced brisk growth in the 1980s. That growth, which was above the state and national averages, no longer exists, and the district is gradually aging, he said.
There will be a dramatic increase in the median age in the school district, he said, from 31.2 years old in 1990 to 35.7 years old in 2005.
He also said people moving into the school district tend to be 25 to 40 years old, and those moving out are in the 18 to 24 age group.
"This is the curse of a successful school system - children graduate and go to college and they don't come back," he said.
He predicted that, in general, elementary school attendance would peak around 2003 to 2005, then attendance would decline slightly. "Basically, you're going to be in a holding pattern," he said.
He said he expects the elementary enrollment district-wide to drop by about 200 students over the next 10 years.
The current enrollment, according to school superintendent Dr. Lee Harman, as of Monday was 6,295 students, compared to 6,354 at this time last year.
Population growth in general is down nationwide, McKibben said, and that has an impact on most school systems.
"The bottom line - you're going to have just enough inflow to offset the outflow," he said.
While that might mean WCS won't see a huge increase or decrease in the number of students, he said, it does mean the district will be able to count on an enviable amount of stability for at least the next 10 years, he said.
In other business, the board approved receiving funds from the state through electronic transfer, and approved re-funding the $2.5 million bond for Warsaw Community High School at current interest rates.
While the bond cannot be refinanced until 2000, the interest rate can be locked in now, said Rande Thorpe, WCS business manager. The refinancing will save the corporation approximately $800,000, he said.
The board also gave transportation manager Della Swain permission to advertise for bids to replace five 55-passenger buses and one 84-passenger bus.
Warsaw's school board received a plaque from the Indiana School Board Association naming it an outstanding school board in Indiana for 1997-98 based on the attendance of the school board members.
The board will meet next at 7 p.m. Dec. 8 in the administration building. [[In-content Ad]]